While NATO debates the increase in its defense expenses to 5 percent of GDP, Belgium, founding member of the Alliance, is at the crossroads. It currently devotes only 1.3 percent of its GDP to La Défense, but the increase offered to 5 percent – equivalent to an additional 22.13 billion euros on the basis of a GDP projection of 598 billion euros in 2025 – would represent a huge change in national priorities. Although such a measure is a sign of a strong commitment to NATO, it risks weighing down the already high national debt of Belgium, to put pressure on social programs and to arouse internal political controversy.
Main information
- Budgetary pressures and debt risks: the increase in defense expenses to 5 percent of GDP would considerably increase the public debt of Belgium, which already amounts to 104.7 percent of GDP, which could increase funding costs and make Belgium dependent on EU loans or budgetary adjustments, warned the Minister of the Budget, Vincent Van Peteghem.
- The increase in expenditure proposed could lead to cuts in the solid social programs of Belgium, which represent 29 percent of GDP, which would lead to the dissatisfaction of the public and the political instability of a coalition government already subject to the pressure of regional divisions.
- Alignment with a 5 -percent NATO defense objective would improve Belgium’s international status, but economic benefits are uncertain and national support could be weakened due to the compromise between the priorities in terms of social protection and growth.
The financial pressure is strong
According to Statita, Belgium’s public debt, which amounted to 104.7 percent of GDP in 2024, will reach 118.95 percent in 2029. The increase in defense expenses of additional 22 billion per year would probably accelerate this trajectory, by increasing borrowing costs and digging deficit. The forecasts of the European Commission for May 2025 underline these concerns by noting that the increase in expenses, including defense, will increase the budget deficit of Belgium. The Minister of Budget, Vincent Van Peteghem, warned in April 2025 that such expenses could lead to cuts in social assistance programs.
To finance this increase, Belgium could use EU loans or budgetary safeguard clauses – temporary derogations from European budgetary rules granted in exceptional circumstances, such as an economic crisis – but these measures could increase long -term loan costs, weighing down the burden of an economy already in the grip of high debt levels. The budgetary challenge is clear: in the absence of significant revenue increases, the trajectory towards defense expenses of 5 percent could put the budgetary health of Belgium on the verge of collapse.
Economic implications
The economic consequences of such an increase in spending are complex. Research by the Kiel Institute suggest that defense expenses of 3.5 percent of GDP could stimulate economic growth from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent per year if they were focused on high -tech armaments produced in the country. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that the tax multiplier is modest, of the order of 0.5, which means that each 100 euros spent generates only 50 euros in GDP growth over two years, especially if imports dominate. For Belgium, a small economy dependent on trade, diverting resources from sectors such as education and clean energy – known to create more jobs – could limit overall growth. The “Costs of War” project notes that the defense -related sectors often generate greater economic benefits, which suggests that the net economic impact of Belgium could be negative.
If defense -related industries could benefit from a boost, the general economic situation remains uncertain, trade risks and the reallocation of resources posing significant challenges.
Social programs in danger
The social spending of Belgium, which represents 29 percent of GDP, are the basis of its solid welfare state, particularly in terms of health care and education. According to the Database Trading Economics, total public spending amounted to 54.5 percent of GDP in 2024. The 5 percent defense assignment would probably reduce these programs, which could erode the support of public opinion. The 2023 IMF report on the sanitation of Belgian public finances highlighted the need to rationalize social benefits to control debt, and new cups in the defense could increase the dissatisfaction of the population. In a country with a strong tradition of social security, such cuts could trigger protests or social disorders, especially among those who depend on these services.
The political challenges to come
The political consequences of the priority given to defense on social spending are important. In an interview with Bloomberg in June 2025, Prime Minister Bart de Wever described the objective of 5 percent as a “bitter pill to swallow”, but necessary for security. But finding a balance between this objective and national priorities could put pressure on the Belgian coalition government, which is already faced with tensions between Flanders and Wallonia. The warnings of the Minister of Budget, Van Peteghem, concerning social security reductions underline the potential for political instability, because the dissatisfaction of the population could test the cohesion of the government.
A more important role for NATO, but at what price?
On the international level, the adoption of a defense objective of 5 percent of GDP would place Belgium in the leading position within NATO, especially since tensions with Russia increase and that the United States is pressure to increase their contributions. A Bloomberg report of June 17, 2025 noted the support of Belgium to the objective, although it insisted on flexibility in the accounting of infrastructure as defense expenses. This position could increase the influence of Belgium within the Alliance and encourage other members to follow his example. However, national support could fade if economic and social costs became too high.
By comparison, countries like Israel (5.7 percent of GDP) and Saudi Arabia (8.4 percent) maintain high defense expenses due to unique security threats, but the context of Belgium is different. Among the NATO countries, the United States (3.28 percent) and Poland (3.05 percent) spend much less, which underlines the unprecedented character of an objective of 5 percent for a small economy like that of Belgium.
Navigate in a delicate balance
The possible passage of Belgium to defense expenses of 5 percent of GDP reflects the broader orientation of NATO in favor of collective security, but is accompanied by considerable compromise. The increase in debt, possible cuts in social services and limited economic gains could supply interior disorders and political instability. Although this decision strengthens the status of Belgium within NATO, the government must carefully weigh these costs compared to the advantages of a greater commitment to the alliance. As the NATO summit discussions progressed, Belgian leaders will face the arduous task of finding a balance between global responsibilities and national realities.
For the moment, the path to follow remains uncertain, but the issues could not be more important.
