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American GDP falls harder than expected in 2025

The activity fell 0.5% in annualized pace against 0.2% expected during a previous estimate.

In the United States, the drop in GDP in the first quarter is more severe than expected with a decline in 0.5% activity in annualized pace against a first estimate of -0.2%, according to figures from the Commerce Department.

In the quarter, household consumption expenses slowed down to +0.5% against 1.2% hoped for in a previous estimate, while PCE inflation accelerated at +3.7%.

This represents a decline of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter.

Analysts expected this data not revised, according to the consensus published by Briefing.com.

“The drop in GDP in the first quarter mainly reflects an increase in imports, which constitute an subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in public spending,” it is underlined in the ministry report.

This increase in imports shows that companies have constituted stocks before the entry into force of the important customs duties imposed by Donald Trump on most of the United States business partners, in particular products manufactured in China.

A warning stroke in April

The first estimate of GDP, published at the end of April, had the effect of a warning stroke. It was the first negative evolution for the first world economy since 2022, which was still flourishing at the end of 2024.

Thursday’s revision mainly reflects “downward revisions of consumer spending and exports,” said the US trade ministry.

These revisions were “partially compensated” by a downward adjustment of the import level, added the ministry.

While Donald Trump has revealed or postponed some of its most punitive commercial salvas in the context of current commercial negotiations, the July deadline approach for the entry into force of higher customs rights for dozens of business partners, which adds to economic uncertainty.

addison.bailey
addison.bailey
Addison is an arts and culture writer who explores the intersections of creativity, history, and modern societal trends through a thoughtful lens.
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