– / AFP
If the Iranian regime has indeed saved its stock of uranium enriched with American strikes, the fear of a nuclear “flight” becomes possible. (Illustration image)
Near East-This is perhaps the biggest question that remains following American strikes in Iran on June 22. Admittedly, there are always doubts around the exact state of Iranian nuclear sites, between destruction “Total” claimed by Donald Trump or “ very important damage ” According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA). But in recent days, this is above all what has happened to the stock of uranium enriched at levels close to the militarization which questions.
One possibility, at the beginning little considered, takes advantage of the magnitude: that which the Iranian regime was able to move these more than 400 kg of enriched uranium, probably stored at the Fordo underground site, in prevention of the American attack. Donald Trump, he assured this Thursday, June 26 that “Nothing was evacuated”car « It would take too long, would be too dangerous and would be very heavy and difficult to move ”. Same speech at the White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. “I can tell you that the United States has had no indication that highly enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, as I also saw it wrongly”She said to Fox News.
But the Trump administration is the only one to be so final. The director of the AIEA, Rafael Grossi, explained to France 2 this Wednesday that the UN agency “Lost visibility on this material from the moment that hostilities have started”. Above all, according to the Financial TimesEuropean governments have been warned by sources of intelligence that the Iranian authorities would indeed have transferred the immense part of their 408 kg of uranium enriched to several other locations.
A stock “not very difficult to transport”
Is it possible to move this uranium? The answer is yes, for Héloïse Fayet, head of the deterrent and proliferation program at the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “In reality, such a stock is not very difficult to transport. It does not take up much space and is not radioactive. It cannot be detected She explains in an interview to the point.
The Iranian authorities had also given some signs on this subject. Ali Shamkhani, one of the advisers of the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, had claimed on Monday, June 23 that “The game is not over”, saying that “Enriched materials, know-how and political will remain”.
These statements could have stayed in the field of the usual propaganda of the Iranian regime, before another clue come to strengthen this possible displacement: Maxar Technologies satellite images on June 19 and 20, a few days before the American attacks.
AFP / Image satellite ©2025 Maxar Technologies
This satellite image shows trucks positioned near an underground entry of the Iranian nuclear site of Fordo, on June 19, 2025, or 3 days before the American strikes.
You can see more than a dozen trucks lined up in front of the entrance to the Fordo underground installations, clearly nourishing the idea of a widener movement of enriched uranium.
Major challenges to face
The idea that Iran has indeed saved its 60 % enriched uranium stock seems to gain momentum. In theory, if treated up to 90 %, this quantity of fissile matter may be enough to build more than ten nuclear weapons. However, we are still far away. Already because it would be necessary to continue enrichment, and therefore use infrastructures which have undoubtedly undergone considerable damage, even without falling into the excess of Trumpist.
Without forgetting that holding uranium enriched enough to make a nuclear weapon is one thing, but having missiles capable of loading and transporting it is another.
The most important thing concerns the will of the Iranian regime to continue this nuclear program to the atomic weapon. The operations of Israel and then of the United States have shown it: Tehran is far from having military capacity to defend themselves or retaliate in front of its enemies, while Israeli information also seems to have very well infiltrated the Iranian networks – evidenced by its first day of operation, on June 13, where many very high officials of the regime and the nuclear program died.
Neither Benjamin Netanyahu, nor especially Donald Trump, also showed real hesitation in hitting Iran militarily, even though the mullahs regime still seemed far from obtaining nuclear weapons: three years, had estimated American information before the start of the war.
Towards a “flight forward” from the diet?
The fact remains that for Tehran, these 400 kilograms of fissile material already highly enriched can be a basis if the mullah regime made the choice of definitively working on the creation of an atomic weapon. Even if such a decision hitherto been denied by the Iranian Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei.
This would be necessary to switch its nuclear program in the most total hiding. Voting in the Iranian Parliament on Monday to get out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and therefore control of the IAEA seems to go in this direction. The text was approved by the Guardian Council this Thursday, June 26 – the real legislative power in the country -, and must now be transmitted to the Iranian presidency to be definitively ratified.
This is what Emmanuel Macron dreads according to Le Monde, who writes that the French president fears that the Iranian regime can “Getting out more determined from this war” and rocks “In a flight forward, by accelerating his work in a clandestine way”. With behind that, the idea that could germinate in Tehran that only obtaining the atomic weapon would allow the regime to ensure its security, even if it means taking all the risks to try to get there as quickly as possible.
