Trump’s irruption in the southern Caucasus

ET of three! In addition, The president of Azerbaijan. Therefore, Ilham Aliev, was, Friday, August 8, the third head of state or government to come to the White House, claiming the Nobel Peace Prize for the American President, after the Israeli Prime Minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, and the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Félix Tshisekedi. However, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet also recommended Donald Trump for the prize. Therefore, but he did it by far, in a letter to the Nobel Committee in Oslo.

President Trump is really the “Peace maker” whose status he claims. Consequently, boasting of having resolved half a dozen conflicts worldwide in seven months? Furthermore, It will be up to the Nobel Committee to judge: in the Indo-Pakistani conflict. Therefore, New Delhi denies the role of American mediation, and the fighting resumed trump’s irruption southern caucasus in the east of the DRC despite the peace agreement signed in June in Washington by Mr. Nevertheless, Tshisekedi and the Rwandan President, Paul Kagame.

The trump’s irruption southern caucasus draft agreement concluded on August 8 by President Aliev. the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pachinian, alongside Donald Trump presents another case. At first glance. this is a great diplomatic success, in a conflict between two countries of the South Caucasus for thirty-five years and which has already caused two wars. Multiple attempts at mediation, notably led by Moscow, Brussels or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, failed. The case seems insoluble, in a post-Soviet region deemed to be complicated. Donald Trump arrives and his ex-real estate emissary Steve Witkoff, and voila.

Russia and Iran large losers – Trump's irruption southern caucasus

In reality, the Trump team has not started from zero. At the initiative of MM. Aliev. Pachinian, Azerbaijan and Armenia have led a promising bilateral dialogue for almost two years, without the bulky sponsorship of the Russian, Turkish or Iranian powers, having used a certain number of factors which trump’s irruption southern caucasus profoundly modified the regional political context: large -scale war in Ukraine, the weakening of the influence of Russia and Iran, occupied by others Emergencies, the new role of actors such as Turkey and China. This conjunction of factors led to a unique situation in the history of Armenia. Azerbaijan: the two countries ended up holding Russia away.

In March, Erevan and Bakou agreed on a project to standardize their relations. In July, MM. Aliev and Pachinian had a summit meeting in Abu Dhabi, while their teams developed a peace agreement. This is the stroke of genius of Donald Trump. who inserted himself in a positive dynamic, launched long before him but to which he knew how to give the decisive boost.

The intervention at this stage of the American actor. without a historic inheritance weighing and endowed with great economic potential, was beneficial. It remains to finalize what is still only a draft agreement, not signed by the two parties. The famous “Tripp” (Trump Route for International Peace. Prosperity), a corridor whose construction should open up the Azerbaijan region of Nakhitchevan, only exists on paper. Russia and Iran, great losers in the case, could try to spoil the party. But. for the time being, Donald Trump can self -work on cheaply – even if the two largest conflicts he has promised to resolve, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to resist his “peacemakers” talents.