Real estate in French -speaking Switzerland
How demography will influence school needs
The management of school buildings involves anticipating the decreases of staff announced until 2030, while preparing for a possible recovery planned by 2040.
The cantons of Vaud and Geneva should provide, respectively, 80 and 265 additional classes by the next fifteen years.
MARIE-LOU DUMAUTHIOZ
- The number of births fell sharply throughout Switzerland between 2022 and 2024, which should be reflected in school enrollment until the second half of the 2030s.
- Public school buildings represent a very important heritage value for the municipalities.
- For public authorities, investing in time to adapt to future changes is essential.
The fertility index, which has maintained an average of 1.5 children per couple since the late 1970s, fell sharply between 2022 and 2024 to increase to 1.28. This birth Marked (to which is added the aging of the population) will have an impact on the job market, retirement systems, health and education, but also on real estate and school infrastructure.
To find out what to expect, let us look a little at the figures of demography as we can now predict them, taking into account a certain margin of errors. To do this, we called on Wüest partnerreal estate consulting company, whose population forecasting model makes it possible to conjecture the evolution of the permanent resident population until 2050, by age and by municipality. And thus, to predict the number of children of age to be educated in the future.
Birth
According to this study, the decline in births of the past three years is expected to be reflected in school enrollment over a dozen years. This is confirmed by Corinne Dubois, expert economist and co -author of the study: “In 2024, according to provisional data from the Federal Statistics Office, the canton of Vaud had around 101,700 children in school age (from 4 to 14 years old) and the Canton of Geneva 62,500. The first will count just over 99,500 in 2031 and the second more than 60,000 on the same date. The drop in births is reflected in a decrease in the number of students expected at children’s school in 2027 and 2028, which will also affect primary and secondary schools during the 2030s. Hence our forecasts of an impact until around 2037, “she explains.
However, the buildings of the public school represent, by far, the main heritage value of most of the municipalities, adds Corinne Dubois. “The value of school buildings generally represents more than 50% of the administrative assets of these. Not to mention the operating costs (maintenance, repairs, energy) which form an important position of municipal finances “, she underlines, adding that” the school enrollment, especially in the childish classes (1 and 2p), are particularly sensitive to hypotheses on birth rates “.
The immigration stimulus on additional classes
Although carefully carried out and relying on serious probabilities, this remains hypotheses. What about children in 2040 who today have not yet been born? “Our forecasts are based on the most serious data and hypotheses we have currently, but the propensity to have children depends on many factors likely to evolve,” explains, prudent, Corinne Dubois.
Nevertheless, taking into account the immigration which should (employment market obliges) continue to stimulate demographic growth in the coming years, and if we take an average of 19 children per class, the cantons of Vaud and Geneva should predict, respectively, 80 and 265 additional classes by 2040. In the canton of Vaud, it would be a question of opening 45 child and 45 primary classes, Remove 8 secondary classes. In the canton of Geneva, it would take 128 more children’s classes, an additional 138 in primary and one less secondary class.
Under-exploited public school premises
But by then, some buildings are likely to be under-exploited. “The fact is that we first have a drop in staff, then an increase, mainly due to the immigration necessary for the job market.”
The municipalities certainly have time to see coming, but they will be faced with temporarily underused premises. The challenges are how, momentarily, use these premises. Reception structures or associative places, several possibilities are conceivable thanks, for example, to multipurpose rooms that can ultimately be able to make available to schools.
“As part of the planning of the school space, it is important to keep an overview of all factors and to permanently monitor the effects of changes. A flexible and evolving planning model, associated with a solid strategic vision, offers decisive advantages, ”concludes Corinne Dubois. A major challenge that the municipalities in the cantons of Geneva and Vaud must be able to take up by putting themselves there today.
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