While France maintains its ambitions of carbon neutrality for 2050, the last note of the Economic Analysis Council (CAE), published in July 2025, offers a strategic refocusing on the real conditions of efficiency of the transition to electric vehicles (VE). Behind the “zero emission in 2035” slogan, the analysis invites us to exceed the only focus on sales of new vehicles to integrate real uses, used market flows and business fleet dynamics.
Automobile: a park forced by its structural inertia
The French car fleet is aging: with nearly 39 million private vehicles and an average age of around 11 years, its renewal remains slow. Gold, 75 % of buyers turn to the occasionsegment still massively dominated by thermal engines. Despite a rapid increase in new VE registrations (17 % in 2023), they still represent only 5 % of the total park.
This structure limits the climate impact of short -term public aid. The resale of a thermal vehicle – notably diesel – extends its emission cycle: on average, 60 % of its total emissions occur after its first owner.
Use, decisive factor and under-exploited
Technological innovation is not enough. This is one of the major lessons in the report: reducing the use of vehicles and better distributing its use according to profiles is a powerful climate lever. A Immediate drop by 10 % of annual mileage generates a climate benefit comparable to that of a rapid change towards 98 % of NE, in 2035.
The CAE also insists on Optimal pairing between vehicle and user : a cleaning of low annual mileage is more virtuous by retaining an old thermal vehicle than by reselling it to a “large roller”. This type of carbon leak via the second -hand market calls for an overhaul of the aid eligibility criteria, from ZFE to conversion bonuses.
Large fleets, Achilles heel of electrification
While business fleets represent more than 50 % of new registrationstheir behavior remains little aligned with climatic objectives. The small structures adopt the VEs at a pace close to households, but Large fleets (> 10 vehicles) only consider 10 % FI in their next purchases. This offset obstructs the arrival of electric vehicles on the second -hand market.
The climate law however imposes an increasing share of clean vehicles (40 % in 2027). The CAE attributes this delay to organizational obstacles more than for use constraints.
Towards a strategy based on uses and sobriety
The report offers eight concrete recommendations, including:
- Spread subsidies over the duration of detention To avoid distortion effects on resale.
- Create a green savings plantax exemption, to prepare for the future purchase of a VE and finance the infrastructure.
- Establish a diagnosis of systematic use In concession, accompanied by incentives for the sale of VE.
- Make insurance per kilometer the default optionto reward sober behavior.
- Impose telematic monitoring on the fleetsin order to correct regulatory biases by actual use data.
The note also pleads for a realistic reading of “zero emission” objectives. The 0 g Co₂/km threshold for 2035 should be understood as a relative target, based on The best technology availableand not as a zero emission in absolute value – which remains inaccurate in the case of the VE, according to the energy mix.
Finally, the CAE raises a strategic question: Where is one euro the most effective for the climate? Subsidize the purchase of a VE in France or support electrical infrastructure in an emerging country?
