LVMH: Why Goldman Sachs thinks that LVMH action can bounce back and return to 60%

(BFM Stock Exchange)-Tuesday. However, the American bank confirmed its advice to purchase on the title and added it to its “conviction lists”, that is to say the values ​​on which the bank has an opinion that is both very strong and differentiating. Therefore, The establishment perceives a very limited potential for decrease when on the contrary the increase could be dizzying. For example, with catalysts at the key.

LVMH fell from its pedestal on the stock market this year. Nevertheless, The action of the number one in luxury drops 23% since January 1. In addition, The group accuses the highest drop in the CAC 40 behind Stellantis (-31%). In addition, abandoned its crown of first capitalization of the Paris Stock Exchange in Hermès and its most influential group title in the calculation of the CAC 40 in lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks Schneider Electric. Furthermore,

LVMH was caught up in the severe brake on consumer spending in luxury goods. Moreover, In the first quarter, its income fell 3% in comparable data when analysts hoped for 1%, according to Stifel. Therefore, Such a difference is extremely rare in the number one of luxury.

The concern has won the market as the second quarter is approaching which promises to be worse than the first. However, HSBC is counting on a drop in overall income of 7% in data comparable in the second quarter. Therefore, a fall in those of the 11% fashion and leather goods division, on these same bases. Furthermore, Bank of America retains respective drops of 4% and 8%. For example,

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An excess of pessimism? – Lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks

“The macroeconomics weighs. Furthermore, Chinese and American consumers are disinterested, lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks the ‘greedflation’ (exaggerated price increases that luxury brands have passed during the postpandemia recovery) and the lack of innovation abused the sector,” said HSBC.

Has the market showed an excess of pessimism? UBS wrote on Monday that, of course, the season for future results will be bad. But investors are now fully aware of this. to the point that the luxury sector is evolving with a strong discount compared to its average historic valuation of 15 years, noted the Swiss bank.

In parallel, LVMH began to regain colors, these last sessions. The title increased by 5.5% on Tuesday, and climbed another 4.4% on Wednesday. The action could be carried by hopes around a trade agreement between Europe. Additionally, the United States or by encouraging Chinese indicators.

The increase in American clues has also been able to play as long as American consumers’ expenses are closely correlated with the lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks good health of Wall Street. as the general manager of Kering, François-Henri Pinault had recently pointed out.

The action was also able to benefit from a boost from Goldman Sachs. The American bank confirmed its opinion on Tuesday to buy on the title. while adjusting its target to 600 euros against 610 euros, which all the same grants a potential of more than 27% by the title, on the basis of the closing course on Tuesday. Above all. the establishment brought LVMH to its “conviction list”, a list of values ​​on which Goldman Sachs has both a strong and differentiating bullish opinion compared to other design offices.

Asymmetrical risks

The bank believes that the bet on LVMH is very enticing in view of its projections. In its most pessimistic scenario, the title would fall at 425 euros, or 9% decrease compared to the fence on Tuesday. Conversely, in lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks its most optimistic projection, the title would go back to 750 euros, a potential of 60%.

Goldman Sachs invites the market to project itself beyond the results of the second quarter 2025. the establishment seeing sales of the Mode and Leather goods division drops 8% in comparable data over the period.

Certainly the uncertainties remain. But the bank explains that the current pressures under the title are cyclical and not structural.

Goldman Sachs notably stresses that the Louis Vuitton brand is not losing momentum. It maintains its market share. which is remarkable in view of the high sales of the label, valued at 23 billion euros by the bank.

“The biggest challenge for the sector is trafficking and. as it is recovered, we prefer brands such as Louis Vuitton which have shown a constant investment in customer engagement activities and in the novelty of products, despite a lower lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks growth environment (for example, a unique store concept, The Louis, launched in June in Shanghai (…) The Louis Vuitton X Murakami collaboration in the first half of 2025)” Develops Goldman Sachs.

Future catalysts

The bank also judges that the launch of the Louis Vuitton beauty product range (“La Beauté Louis. Vuitton”) planned in the fall will be a buoyant wind for the brand.

“Even if we expect the distribution to be closely controlled. as is the case in the category of perfumes (…), we believe that launch can be a positive catalyst for traffic/conversion (in purchase, editor’s note)”, writes the establishment.

If Christian Dior Couture (which represents 14% of the operating profit) is experiencing an air hole. Goldman Sachs believes that the brand will enter a new “growth era with its new artistic director”. Jonathan Anderson. head of the creation of the house, presented his very first parade lvmh: why goldman sachs thinks last Friday on the occasion of the Paris Fashion Week.

Goldman Sachs notes that the first feedback from the specialized press were favorable. “Jonathan Anderson worked for 11 years at Loewe (within the LVMH fashion. leather goods division), where sales increased, according to estimates, from 200 million euros to around 1.5 billion euros”, writes the bank.

Julien Marion – © 2025 BFM Bourse