Keystone-SDA
The private sector shows good resilience in a disturbed geopolitical context. In 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) should increase by 1.1% and in 2026, by 1.8%, Swiss Life economists on Wednesday indicate.
(Keystone-ATS) With these forecasts, Swiss Life displays greater optimism than consensus, which targets growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
Starting from the principle that no escalation in the trade war takes place, a cyclical embellious is expected, carried by the private consumption of households and the construction activity. In the same way as after the shock of the franc in 2015, which strengthened purchasing power, household consumption should significantly contribute to GDP growth.
Exports proved to be dynamic to the first partial, in particular thanks to pharmaceutical products, before falling in April and May, so that a stagnation of GDP was recorded in the second quarter.
Due to declining import prices, a short period of deflation is expected. The conflict between Israel and Iran, however, leads to a sharp increase in final prices for petroleum products, which will have a strong influence on increase in the coming months. Inflation is expected at 0.1% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026.
