Keystone-SDA
Worried, but not desperate: when approaching the deadline set by Donald Trump, Indian industrialists and exporters want to believe in the possibility of an agreement. The latter would thus avoid the increase in customs duties brandished by the United States.
(Keystone-ATS) For weeks, negotiations are going well between the two countries to complete a commercial treaty before July 9. Otherwise, the American president will impose a 26% tax on all “made in India” products entering his soil. The two countries are therefore discussing toilet to avoid this perspective.
True to his very extroverted diplomacy, the White House tenant had suggested the imminence of a “very big” agreement last week. “It will be an agreement under which we can enter (on the Indian market) and fight,” he added on Tuesday. “Until then, India has not accepted anyone. If she decides, we will have much lower customs duties ”.
“An agreement would fill me,” the Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Financial Express on Monday. “A big, a good, a nice agreement. Why not? “, She added by paraphrasing Donald Trump. For India, the stakes are high.
If the most populous country on the planet – 1.4 billion inhabitants – is not yet the world’s factory that will replace China, it has posted a trade surplus of $ 45.7 billion in 2024 that feeds Donald Trump’s ire. Among its main goods exported to the United States, electronics, precious stones, jewelry or shrimp. The pharmacy was spared from American threats.
On the eve of the deadline, the director general of the Federation of Indian exporting companies, Ajay Sahai, confides to be “optimistic” on the chances of an agreement, “at least from the point of view of trade”. His country has “committed constructively” in the discussions, he judges, and the “very fluid situation” leaves the possibility of a postponement of sanctions.
“Limited pact”
“The echoes I have a positive outcome, I am confident,” says Sahai. His counterpart of the Indian association of seafood exporters, Kn Raghavan, displays the same hope. After “a certain anxiety”, he now confesses “more reasons to hope”. “A solution seems in sight,” he summarizes.
In recent days, the Indian press has been rustling with anonymous confidences anticipating the finalization of an agreement, despite difficulties in agricultural products and car spare parts. The Indian Minister of Finance recalled on Monday that “agriculture and dairy products” constituted for her country “large red lines”.
And India’s requirements remain unsatisfied with regard to steel and aluminum taxes, and on the opening of the American market to its textiles or shoes, completes AFP a source at the Ministry of Commerce. Under these conditions, observers rather lean for the conclusion, by next week, of a less ambitious text, in the form of a truce.
“The most likely outcome is a limited commercial pact,” said Ajay Srivastava, of the Global Trade Research Initiative reflection center, based in New Delhi. In this context, he specifies, India could lower its customs barriers to certain industrial products and offer reduced access to American agricultural products, in exchange for a drop in the rate of which Donald Trump threats.
However, warned Mr. Srivastava, the discussions could “interrupt” if Washington “continues to insist on the opening of whole sections of the agricultural sector of India or the entry of genetically modified organisms” (GMO). Sea fruit exporters want to believe that their government will not sacrifice their interests in the last straight line of the negotiations.
“We think we can overcome customs duties by 10%,” said Raghavan. “But if this rate goes to 25 or even 30%, our American customers will get their supplies elsewhere and for cheaper. »»
