What will France look like in fifteen years? This is the question to which a group of researchers from the Montaigne Institute tried to answer in its latest report, “France 2040: projections for political action”. Energy, industry, defense, health, education or even trade, the themes addressed are varied, but each time the observation is the same: “the country is bogged down”.
The climate crisis and the demographic crisis are at the heart of the concerns of researchers. The report aims to “highlight the cost of inaction”, to “put the policies before their responsibilities“And” open the field of possible “, specifies Bruno Trtrais, coordinator of the study, with the agency France Presse.
To arrive at this conclusion, the authors worked for 18 months based on several hundred documents, public reports, academic studies, general and specialized works. This report therefore does not take into account recent events that could have influenced the forecastsuch as the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 or the return to the White House of Donald Trump last January.
However, these projections do not come from nowhere. The researchers have “isolated underlying trends that continue and have been intensifying for ten years, fifteen years or more”. According to them, “the French model seems out of breath While the transformation of the world accelerates “.
An intense climate crisis
In its sixth evaluation report, the intergovernmental group of experts on climate evolution (IPCC) estimates that “the limit of +1.5 ° C of global warming will probably be exceeded before 2040”, and rather in 2034. The Montaigne Institute is based on its figures to recall “that difference From a few tenths of degree is enough to have some so-called ‘rocking points’ crossed, beyond which a system is brutally reorganized. “
In France, this will result in an increase in the number of extreme climatic episodes, “warmer and humid”. In particular, we should expect several waves of heat waves per year, while “their average duration has been multiplied by six “over the last ten years compared to the period 1961-1990.
“Three to four billion people will potentially be affected by events extremewhose water stress, likely to cause food insecurity, decrease in water resources and destruction of certain residential areas, “provides the report.
The climate crisis will also have consequences on the biodiversity. “With its overseas, France thus brings together 10 % of the hot spots in world biodiversity”, that is to say areas where flora and fauna are particularly sensitive to threats caused by climate change. 40 % of terrestrial animal species are already in danger in the overseas regions.
“By 2040, the tension between environmental imperatives and certain economic objectives will constitute one of the structuring nodes of the debate public “, add the authors. This concerns in particular the agricultural environment which could encounter difficulties in reconciling the food needs of the population and the challenges of sustainable development.
“The number of natural disasters reported is stable Since the beginning of the century “, have been nuance the authors of the report.
Problems that accumulate
Added to this is the crisis demographic who threatens to touch the country. The researchers note a “increasing interweaving” of the issues, which “strengthen each other”. Thus, it is difficult to untie the relationships of cause with consequences between climate crisis and demographic crisis.
“The 65 years or over will represent 26 to 28 % of the population in 2040, bearing the dependence ratio between assets and inactive to approximately 50Â %“, according to researchers’ estimates. This means that expenses for the elderly could reach 1.9 % of GDP, against 1.4 % currently.
In general, the French will experience a lowering of their standard of living by 2040 “which will result in a dropout of income per capita and increased pressure on intergenerational solidarities”.
“The room for maneuver exist”
Researchers also denounce vision “In the short term” public authorities and the state. “Managing the country only over the water, by reacting only to immediate news, appears to us to be a considerable risk and an abandonment of our will to shape the future,” they say.
In addition, the latter specify that “France has assets”. However, they are “diluted by uncertainty public policies, chronic under-investment and stacking of standards “, indicates the report.
The Institute is still intended reassuring And wishes to avoid “any fatalism, the room for maneuver exist”. The issue is now based on France’s transition capacities and its “ambitious adaptation policies”. But its “annual cost will be lastingly beyond the billion euros”.
“We want to call for a awareness The risk that political immobility or caricature made weigh on our future, “conclude researchers.
