The Japanese go to the polls on Sunday: a senatorial ballot where the fate of the power coalition is played out, very unpopular against the backdrop of inflation and thrust of an anti-immigration populist party on the right. According to the result, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could be pushed to resign.
IMAGO/Kyodo News
At 68, Mr. Ishiba has directed a minority government since October, after having conducted his conservative training, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), a bitter setbacks in legislative elections in the fall in the lower chamber.
However, according to polls, the government coalition, made up of the PLD and the small centrist ally Komeito, also risks losing its majority on Sunday in the upper room of the Parliament, where 125 of the 248 seats are renewed. The coalition must win 50 to keep its majority.
Otherwise, “Shigeru Ishiba could be forced to resign,” Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University, Toru.
A reign of almost 70 years
Japan “will enter unknown ground, with a minority government in the two chambers of Parliament, a unprecedented situation since the Second World War,” he warns.
The PLD (Liberal) governs Japan in an almost uninterrupted way since 1955, despite frequent changes of manager. Mr. Ishiba, self -proclaimed “geek” of military issues, took the lead in September, immediately summoning elections to very mixed success.
Now in the minority in the lower room, the PLD and Komeito must compromise with the opposition to have their texts vote, even though the economic situation darkens.
Inflation
Inflation remains strong (+3.3% in June excluding fresh products), driven by a vertiginous outbreak of rice prices that have doubled in the space of a year.
“The basic prices are increasing, but I am especially worried that wages do not increase,” sighs Atsushi Matsuura, 54, on Sunday in a Tokyo polling station.
Hisayo Kojima, 65, deplores the constant reduction in the real amount of her retirement: “We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most urgent problem, ”she insists.
Trump’s shadow
To alleviate the inflationary impact, Shigeru Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended from energy grants, and has committed to pay checks of 20,000 yen (around 95 francs) per citizen. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.
In addition, Donald Trump’s customs offensive plunged car sales to the United States by a quarter, a sector overlapping by Washington at 25% and which represents 8% of jobs in the archipelago. The threat of generalized surcharge of 25% on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.
While the Japanese negotiator went seven times to the United States, the talks with Washington seem to get bogged down. Before the elections, Shigeru Ishiba displayed a maximalist strategy consisting in claiming the total elimination of customs duties, at the risk of alarming certain industrial actors.
“Government’s ability to manage commercial negotiations is a critical issue, it is crucial for the PLD to consolidate citizens’ confidence,” said AFP Masahisa Endo, professor of political science at Waseda University.
Electoral promises
The financial markets are concerned, them, budgetary drifts, the massifs of recovery plans and aid from the Ishiba government aggravating already massive debt. Several Tokyo bond emissions have been shunned in recent months, caught up the Japanese rates.
“I wanted to vote for a party that does not multiply the promises (with an electoralist end), because it would eventually increase the tax burden. But many training courses promise expenses, I had trouble deciding, ”says Norihiro Yamagishi, 54, a voter in Tokyo.
If we add the corruption scandals entering the PLD, the climate is favorable to the opposition, but it appears fragmented.
“Japan first”
Small anti-system parties, however, encroach on the PLD vote: the Sanseeito, in the slogan “Japan first”, could win more than 10 seats, against two currently.
This training, which has been forced to deny any link with Moscow, advocates “hardened rules and restrictions” in immigration, castigates “globalism” and “radical” gender policies, and calls for recondizing vaccination and decarbonation strategies.
“They express what I think but that could not say for a long time,” said a voter recently during a party rally.
