Par
Jade Lacroix
Published on
Like every month, Météo France publishes its trends at three months. At the end of June, the weather organization released its bulletin for the next three months: July, August and September 2025.
And according to Météo France, the summer period will be marked by dry and hot weather.
Only trends, not forecasts
Each month, Météo France publishes the main climatic trends for the next three months. But beware, these are “no weather forecasts intended to provide information on the time expected in France such or such day,” said the organization. These are “probabilistic trends” based on the different models of seasonal forecasts.
Temperatures above normal
For temperatures, the trend will be heat in the next three months. “On average in the quarter, The hotter scenario than normal is most likely For France, and more generally for Europe and the Mediterranean basin, ”warns Météo France.
Concretely, the probability that temperatures are higher than seasonal normal is 60 %. A trend up 10 points compared to the latest trends published in May.
In parallel, the hypothesis of lower temperatures than the seasonal normal is lower by 10 points compared to the publication of May.
On the other hand, the probability that temperatures comply with the averages remain at 30 %.
Dry time than the average
In the trends published in May, Météo France had failed to bring out a scenario for rainfall. The weather organization now affirms in its last publication in June that the “Scenario drier than normalIs privileged.
However, occasional episodes with locally significant rainfall are not excluded.
For Corsica on the contrary, there is still no scenario that takes shape.
Concretely, the probability that rainfall is lower than the averages is 50 %. There are 30 % chance that it complies with normal and 20 % that it is higher.
How are these trends developed?
These trends are the result of the work of climatologists of Météo France. Each month, they analyze different climate parameters.
They start with the temperature of the tropical oceans because the heat anomalies of these ecosystems “strongly influence the climate of the globe”.
These trends also use “the scenarios established by the different models
seasonal forecasts in the world ”. More specifically, they are based on fourteen of them.
Météo France also takes into account global warming. Widely due to human activities, it leads to temperatures noted more and more frequently above seasonal normal (period 1991-2020).
On a global scale, the year 2024 was the first year beyond the 1.5 ° C heating bar compared to the pre-industrial period.
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