In addition,
Ecb: what if next movement new: Furthermore. Therefore,
Ecb: what if next movement:
While the markets were tabling on a continuation of monetary easing. Furthermore. Nevertheless. For example, several major banks revived their forecasts: the ECB could ultimately raise its rates by 2026, in a more resilient economic context and after a trade agreement between the EU and the United States. Moreover,
After discussing the Timing for the next BCE rate drop for weeks, the next movement could ultimately be … Similarly, an increase.
A call which becomes consensual – Ecb: what if next movement new
This Tuesday. However. Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank withdrew his forecast from a new drop in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB). joining a series of financial institutions that meet their monetary scenario. Similarly, The German bank is now counting on an upcoming rate increase by the end of 2026. Therefore. ecb: what if next movement new a change of course which is part of the wake ecb: what if next movement new of a tariff agreement concluded between the European Union. ecb: what if next movement the United States.
The previous week, Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas had already abandoned their decline forecasts for 2025. HSBC, for its part, confirmed that the ECB had finished with monetary easing. BNP Paribas even plans an increase in rates in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Morgan Stanley and UBS also underlined the growing doubts surrounding a possible drop in rate in September.
Fewer uncertainties. fewer rate drops
This turn comes after the trade agreement sealed on Sunday between Washington. Brussels, which made it possible to avoid a tariff climbing. The agreement provides for a rate of 15% on the majority of European products concerned. half less than what was initially feared.
“Since the conclusion of this agreement. ecb: what if next movement new trade policy has no longer constituted an argument for a new drop in BCE rates. ecb: what if next movement new ” said Deutsche Bank analysts in a note. “A new monetary easing becomes a risk ecb: what if next movement scenario.”
The ECB left its rates unchanged at 2% last week. accompanying this decision with a moderately optimistic diagnosis of the euro area economy. A position that maintains uncertainty among investors about the future orientation of monetary policy, after eight consecutive drops since June 2024.
According to data compiled by LSEG. monetary markets are now only anticipating a softening of 14 base points by the end of the year. a probability of around 55% for a drop of a quarter of a point. For September 2026, they even estimated a low probability of an increase.
The trade agreement announced Sunday by Donald Trump. Ursula von der Leyen makes it ecb: what if next movement new possible to raise an uncertainty about the European economy. With economic data which. at this stage. is resilient, the need to ecb: what if next movement new lower the rates again becomes less obvious for the ECB. Especially since the current key rate of 2% corresponds to ecb: what if next movement the estimate of the neutral rate. Thus, any decrease would amount to accommodating monetary policy, to which the falcons of the ECB will be firmly opposed.
Ecb: what if next movement
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