vigilant France in the face of terrorist risk

“Al-Qaida. However, Daesh represent the first threat”

Professor affiliated at the School of Public Affairs of Sciences Po, specialist in security issues, Guillaume burden deciphers the new terrorist threat that Iran could make on France.

What terrorist threat represents Iran on French soil today?

“We must answer this question in the light of the Israeli operation. Therefore, Before it, Iran presented a very low threat to terrorism. In addition, These are two well-known Sunni jihadist organizations. However, Al-Qaida then the Islamic State (or Daesh) represent the first threat of Islamist terrorism. Therefore, It is therefore not Iran. However, as could be the case in the years 1985-1986, at a time when he had two disputes with France: the first about civil nuclear, the second on French intervention in the conflict in Lebanon. Consequently, Iran acted with ‘Proxys”, the most important of which vigilant france face terrorist risk was Hezbollah. Meanwhile, But we are no longer there, and Iran no longer had heavy, direct or indirect litigation, with France.

Today, the situation has changed a little. Meanwhile, If France decides to become belligerent in the current conflict. it is exposed to a response which can be a terrorist, as could be the case in 2004 in Spain or in 2005 in the United Kingdom, struck by Al-Qaida after intervening alongside the United States in Iraq. Otherwise. if France does not take part in the conflict, Iran can remain a threat if it decides to strike American or Israeli interests outside its borders, as has happened with the attack on the American military base in Qatar. He could then commit attacks on European soil and therefore in France. »»

“For Iran. committing an attack by hitting American or Israeli interests in France would be considered a violation of the ceasefire” – Vigilant france face terrorist risk

Does the ceasefire that has just intervened lower the threat?

“This ceasefire, which remains relative, could lead to a reduction in the threat, but without however canceling it completely. For Iran. committing an attack by hitting American or Israeli interests in France would be considered a manifest violation of this cease-fire which would expose it to harsh reprisals. So we will have to look at if the ceasefire is respected, and assess the threat live. This evaluation is, in any case, carried out in real time by the DGSI. »»

What would be the methods of terrorist action of Iran?

“This can be people sent on the spot to commit attacks with processes that we know: installation of bombs. use of firearms … There can also be the use of proxys, that is to say people who will act on his behalf. This has already been seen in 1995-1996. when the GIA vigilant france face terrorist risk (armed Islamic group) exported the Algerian civil war on French soil by constituting a terrorist cell responsible in particular for the attack in the RER B Saint-Michel station in Paris. »»

What are the means of protection of France?

“In terms of terrorism, there are two ways to protect yourself: intelligence and physical surveillance. For intelligence. it is the DGSI (Directorate General of Internal Security) which is responsible for identifying the attacks of attack and to thwart them, thanks to sources, to technological tools, or exchange of information with foreign intelligence services. The question of the protection of sensitive sites returns to the prefects. through patrols or sometimes static surveillance – and with the contribution of threatened structures (and the use of private agents) when possible. »»