By fixing an ambitious budgetary cap of 162 billion euros for its defense by 2029, Germany is not content to respond to a military emergency. It initiates a structural rebalancing of its industrial policy, by positioning the armament as a growth engine and the lever for strategic autonomy. For listed groups like Rheinmetall, MTU Aero Engines or Renk, the prospects are taking shape over ten years. Et le retour sur investissement ne relève plus du pari.
Minister Boris Pistorius has clarified Berlin’s ambitions: +70 % military budget in five years, with a target of 3.5 % of the GDP dedicated to La Défense. An envelope that does not only finance tanks or missiles: it begins a reform of public procurement, with early payments, guaranteed annual contracts and lightened acquisition procedures.
Financial Times.
An industrial dynamic drawn by the State
The initiated transformation offers a double lever to industry: contractual visibility and incentive to overinvestment. The case of Rheinmetall illustrates this phenomenon: action multiplied by 12 since 2022, creation of new units, diversification towards space and drone. Same trajectory for Renk, of which 27 % of turnover now depends on the Bundeswehr sales.
The German strategy is also based on the consolidation by alliances: Rheinmetall has combined with Lockheed Martin, Anduril and Iceye to co-develop satellites, ammunition and autonomous systems. Une approche duale civil/militaire qui rassure les marchés.
The repercussions of the Germany plan exceed the only defense sector. This massive budget program redirects investment flows, restructuring of sectors and creates new standard sovereignty standards.
First, on the capital level, government announcements offer rare visibility: the Bundeswehr is now acting as a main customer and a strategic planner. This opens up a field of opportunities for institutional investors, in particular in dual industrial values. Armament becomes a vector of arbitration in portfolios, supported by prospects for public commands over 5 to 10 years.
Then, at the level of the sectors, the drive effects are visible in metallurgy, on -board electronics, cybersecurity and maintenance services. The industrial fabric of Germany comes out reinforced, with a logic of productive verticalization around actors like Rheinmetall, Hensoldt or Mbda Germany. Regional clusters are densified, carried by plant establishments and technology transfers.
Finally, the logic of sovereignty is reflected in economic language by a national industrial preference, reinforced by logistical security criteria. Germany intends to master the entire critical supply chain. This implies a partial decoupling vis-à-vis non-European suppliers and a strategic refocusing on intra-European and transatlantic cooperation.
This system goes beyond the only military framework. It is akin to an industrial revival by targeted public spending, structured by sector and supported by an imperative strategic need. While Germany is marked by budgetary prudence, the acceptance of such a trajectory by decision -makers reflects a change in major doctrine.
Based on multi -year commitments and centralized piloting, Germany is testing a model potentially applicable to other critical sectors: cybersecurity, energy, artificial intelligence. Une forme de capitalisme dirigé à l’allemande, en rupture avec les décennies passées.
Through this rearmament, Germany does not only seek to strengthen its security: it restructures its industrial tool, stabilizes national champions and engages in technological upright. For investors and economic observers, it is a strong signal: defense becomes a sector of the future, managed as a strategic asset. Et le pilotage politique n’est plus un obstacle, mais un accélérateur.