American customs tariffs against Switzerland come into force

On August 7, after the failure of the last-minute efforts to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, the Swiss delegation led by President Karin Keller-Sutter returned from Washington with empty hands. The United States has not approved neither the revised commercial offer of Switzerland nor the extension of the negotiation period. As of today, a 39% customs right applies to Swiss goods imported by the United States, with the exception of pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, consumer electronic products, minerals-which are currently the subject of an examination by the United States-precious metals and re-export of unprocessed American goods.

We believe that a little less than two-thirds of Swiss exports to the United States will be affected by the increase in the rate rate to 39%. In 2024, the United States represented 13% of the total Swiss exports, making it the country’s second market.

Switzerland will undoubtedly seek to initiate a direct dialogue with President Trump, possibly considering non -tariff concessions. The options include the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG), an investment mechanism based on the models implemented recently by the United States with the European Union, Japan and South Korea, purchases in the defense field (such as F-35 combat aircraft) or access to the agricultural market, the only sector where Swiss products are protected by customs duties and quota systems. However, the low dependence of Switzerland on gas and the politically sensitive nature of the agricultural sector make these concessions complex, likely to be subject to a referendum.

We reaffirm our revision to the decrease in the prospects for growth of real GDP from Switzerland from 1.1% to 0.9% in 2025

Legal procedures contesting the constitutionality of customs duties are underway before the American courts. However, if the Supreme Court should be called upon to decide, it would not be before mid-2026. The next essential step concerns the pharmaceutical sector. The Trump administration has announced a progressive tariff approach, which will be unveiled this month and includes a low starting rate followed by a sharp increase in 2027. Switzerland can still negotiate a ceiling similar to that of the commercial agreement signed by the EU.

We reaffirm our revision to the decrease in the prospects for the growth of the real GDP of Switzerland from 1.1% to 0.9% in 2025. This reflects the uncertainties regarding the duration and the extent of customs duties on its exports, as well as the reaction of companies which could consider a partial relocation to the EU in order to benefit from lower American taxes, set at 15%. The risks of deterioration persist: a new tariff escalation or prolonged application could still slow down growth, especially in 2026.

Sectoral differentiation could intensify

We anticipate a more marked reaction of Swiss actions today than at the start of the week. Sectoral differentiation could intensify, sectors not affected such as banks, insurance and telecommunications, and sectors oriented towards the domestic market such as public services, showing resilience, while the sectors focused on exports of goods will undergo increased pressure. The valuations of pharmaceutical actions already incorporate a significant risk, which suggests a moderate drop. The yields of Swiss government bonds should continue their decline. While we continue to rely on the maintenance of guiding rates at 0% by the Swiss National Bank, the curve of short and medium -term Swiss sovereign rates could evolve more in negative territory under the effect of market expectations. Our forecast at 12 months for government bond yields at 10 years old is 0.15%. We also anticipate a new weakening of the Swiss franc against the euro around 0.95 in the short term. For the moment, our forecast at 12 months is 0.93 and we will continue to follow the situation closely.