This is one of the economic indicators to which Donald Trump remains the most attentive, because he has a direct impact on his electoral basis. And it is not very good. In June, American inflation continued its increase to 2.7 % over a year, according to the monthly CPI index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). And this, after having reached in May 2.4 % over a year, after 2.3 % in April.
The trend is the same over a month, with prices up 0.3 % in June (compared to 0.1 % in May). Excluding food and energy, still volatile, the index increased by 0.2 % over a month and 2.9 % over a year, a slight increase in both cases compared to May.
In the short term, the first factor that explains this June increase is energy, the price of which is fired up. A consecutive trend in the flash conflict between Israel and Iran, which has resulted in a sharp increase in oil prices, who have since remained high new. The increase in energy also concerns the prices of electricity and gas, which have experienced a sharp increase of one month on the other, according to the BLS.
Customs duties in the scale
But according to most economists, the inflationary trend is explained by customs duties, which would gradually start to weigh on the portfolio of Americans, with more taxed, therefore more expensive foreign products.
That said, the price explosion has not yet taken place in the United States, according to several American media. According to them, since the salvo of customs duties launched in April, the relative control of prices is explained by the stocks of goods that many exporting companies have constituted in anticipation of customs duties.
Interviewed on the American channel CNBC on Monday, Kevin Hassett, one of the main economic advisers of the White House putting two other explanations, without these being checked. For him, the Americans would show a certain ” economic patriotism By purchasing more American products, and exporting countries would not affect customs duties on the price of their goods.
In any case, the situation could soon change, because the real impact will appear according to the outcome of the commercial negotiations between Washington and the many states that export to American soil. A race against the clock whose deadline is set on August 1, otherwise the Trump administration will apply maximum customs taxes.
In addition, the New York Times This other economic threat is recalling this Tuesday: “What economists and political decision -makers are most fearful is a stagnant shock, characterized by an increase in inflation, while the American economy stagnates, or even contracts. »»
The look turned to the Fed
A disaster scenario about which the American Federal Reserve (Fed) remains very attentive. For several months, the American president has multiplied declarations to the address of Jerome Powell, its president, so that the independent institution has dropped its guiding rates. Objective, according to Donald Trump: stimulate the American economy.
An insistent demand to which the Fed boss did not give in, the latter now the American rates at 4.25 – 4.50 %. And inflation up in June should not push the federal reserve to change direction.
« In order for the Fed to lower its interest rates, it must either have proof that inflation is well under control and is not likely to flare, or that the labor market must weaken more », Analysis the NOW This Tuesday. And add: “So far, none of these two promises has been held, which suggests that most officials are not yet in a hurry to see the Central Bank make a decision. »»