An official trip to Washington “for nothing”, “political brutality”: economists have drawn up a severe inventory of the situation faced by Switzerland, after the entry into force of customs duties of 39%Thursday.
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“Trump continues to shape the world to its liking,” says Ipek Ozkardeskaya de Swissquote. The analyst of the Vaudoise bank recalls that Marco Rubio, the American secretary of state, was satisfied Wednesday to “kindly” receive the Swiss delegation, composed of the president of the Confederation Karin Keller-Sutter and the Minister of Economy Guy Parmelin. But this exchange did not lead to an inflection of the White House on customs duties.
The federal councilor had indicated on Wednesday, at the end of the meeting with Mr. Rubio, that there had been a “very good meeting, a very friendly exchange and open on the common issues”.
However, any new discussions will not erase fears about astronomical taxes of 150% to 250% on drugs brandished by the White House tenant. “As a single person decides on everything according to their wishes – and no one can stop it – uncertainty and lack of visibility will stay on the menu for several years,” warns Ms. Ozkardeskaya.
“The displacement of federal advisers to Washington has been useless,” said the economist of Banque Migros, Santosh Brivio. According to the latter, “the will to negotiate the Trump administration is low”. These taxes, “historically high”, will have negative effects on the labor market and weigh up to 0.5% on the gross domestic product (GDP). In the final appeal, the federal government could announce support measures to the branches concerned.
Risk of “technical” recession
“This is a categorical refusal on the American side, motivated exclusively by Donald Trump’s obsession for the trade deficit,” said John Plassard, head of the investment strategy in Cité Gestion.
“Switzerland ultimately inherits the highest price applied to a developed country. Watches, coffee capsules, medical devices: everything goes, except pharmacy and gold for the moment ”. For Mr. Plassard, Switzerland “discovers a political brutality to which it was not prepared” and which could weaken an already modest economic growth.
For the UBS economist, Maxime Botteron, the final taxes could be lower than the 39% entered into force Thursday morning. In the immediate future, the effects of customs duties should have remained limited because important areas for Swiss exporters such as the pharmaceutical sector and gold are exempt from these new taxes. If the latter had to remain high, the bank expert with three keys anticipates negative growth in two quarters, which corresponds to a technical recession, but not to an prolonged economic decline.
Faced with this exceptional situation, the Swiss National Bank (BNS) is expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 0% at its mid-September meeting, estimates Mr. Botteron. It should only intervene in the exchange market if the franc is under pressure.