Even if the household debt ratio with disposable income dropped from 174 % to 171 % in the first quarter of 2025, it remains one of the highest among the G7 countries. In addition, household reimbursement capacity already shows signs of fragility. As shown in the following graph published by the BDC, the mortgage crime rate increased from 0.14 % in 2022 to 0.22 % in the fourth quarter of 2024. Although this level remains low with regard to historical averages, this progression demonstrates an increasing financial pressure on borrowers.
To see this graphic in greater, click here.
Obviously, the increase in payment delays is not limited to mortgage loans. Other forms of consumer debt, such as car loans, credit margins and credit cards, also record an increase in the failure rate, despite an economic context where the job market remains solid.
According to the office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (BSIF), the “payment shocks” linked to mortgage renewals are now among the main systemic risks. The organization estimates that the defect rate will no longer back up, because the increase in the cost of borrowing wins an increasingly important part of household income.
According to the following graph published at the latest report by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Company (SCHL) in the residential mortgage loans, borrowers choose the five -year fixed mortgage loan less and less. Variable rate loans represented 42 % of the new mortgages in February 2025. This trend aligned with our current recommendations.
To see this graphic in greater, click here.
The employment report published on August 1, 2025 in the United States revealed a disappointing position, accompanied by downward revisions for the previous months. This slowdown reduces inflationary pressure and increases the probability that the American federal reserve lowers its rates in September, with the aim of supporting the economy. This new signal also strengthens our conviction that guiding rates will drop by at least 0.5 % by the end of the year and even more in 2026 in both the United States and in Canada.
Passive management often constitutes the most important part of the client’s financial situation. It is therefore essential to entrust your analysis to an objective professional, capable of guiding the customer and making him fully understand his value. After all, isn’t the management of liabilities just as important as that of assets?