Behind the “breakthrough” in eastern Ukraine, a Russian summer offensive that is gradually bearing fruit – rts.ch

The Russian army carried out its widest advanced in 24 hours in Ukrainian territory for more than a year on Tuesday. However, while its progression has been accelerating for several weeks, according to AFP analysis of data provided by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which works with Critical Threats Project (CTP).

Since April, the Russian army has been advancing each month faster than the previous one. Similarly, As of August 12. For example, it had thus behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian increased by more than 6,100 km2 over the last 365 days, four times more than in the previous 365. However, this represents only 1% of Ukrainian pre-war territory, including Crimea and Donbass. Nevertheless, Russia is currently exercising total or partial control over 19% of the Ukrainian territory.

But it is the rapid advance in the north of the strategic city of Pokrovsk (See card above). Moreover, who worries the experts the most. For example, On Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army staff said that fighting took place in Koutcheriv Iar, a small village that was still a few weeks ago from the front. Consequently, On Wednesday, Russia claimed the capture of the localities of Nykanorivka and Souvorové, located southwest of the city-Garnison of Dobropillia.

>> Return the report of the morning:

Speaking on X. Nevertheless, Tatarigami_ua, a former Ukrainian army officer, founder of Frontelligence Insight, a specialized organization on the Ukrainian conflict and research in open sources, explains behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian that it is still too early to evoke a real Russian “operational breakthrough”, but judges that there is still alarm. Moreover, “This is a defense penetration, and penetration can be transformed into a breakthrough,” he explains.

“At present. Moreover, the information is insufficient to determine whether the Ukrainian forces have the resources necessary to contain the Russian forces. Consequently, The Russian group gathered towards Pokrovsk would have more than 100,000 men, which increases the risk of a new expansion (…) The sequence is simple: the Russians must identify a weak point in the enemy defenses. Moreover, then wid Exploitation forces in the operational space.

For him, it is plausible that the situation deteriorates until reaching a “catastrophic” level.

Also speaking on X. Michael Kofman, defense analyst of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, also judges that it is too early to know if the breakthrough will materialize, but it judges the credible scenario. “This breakthrough could lead to an accelerated withdrawal of the positions. The Ukrainian army moves its units to counter this advance. but it is a warning sign of potentially worse situations,” he wrote.

And to mention behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian the risks for the cities located further north of Druzhkivka, then Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

>> Read also: The Russian army has a rapid breakthrough in a strategic sector in eastern Ukraine

Risks of encirclement – Behind "breakthrough" eastern ukraine, russian

If things have accelerated in recent days. the whole summer offensive is redrawing the lines of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In a reportage Published two weeks ago. CNN journalists were able to testify to the Russian advances, still relatively slow, but continuous.

“In eastern Ukraine, the meager winnings of Russia accumulate. It capitalizes on a series of small advances. devotes significant resources to a summer offensive which risks reshaping control of the front lines,” write journalists.

Beyond the Russian troops. which now advance most of the time in small units, on foot, CNN explains that drones are now able to reach areas that were not so long ago “considered as oasis of calm for kyiv”, like Dobropillia.

Questioned by the American media under the guise of anonymity. officers and Ukrainian soldiers evoke the fear of a encirclement of Pokrovsk but also of the cities of Kostiantynivka and, much further north, of Koupiansk. The loss of these three cities would deprive kyiv of support points to defend the rest of the Donetsk region. would release Russian forces to attack Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and would exhibit his troops in open plains to Dnipro.

Un leadership mis en cause – Behind "breakthrough" eastern ukraine, russian

To explain the Russian rapid advance near Dobropillia. experts like Michael Kofman points to the “lack of cohesion of the Ukrainian defensive lines” but also behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian units trying to hold the ground in chronic sub-employed.

The defense analyst also highlights the larger problem of the policy of “steps one step back”. which applies even when the resources in men or equipment are insufficient and on land sometimes disadvantageous, or even in situations of quasi-enchanted. “Too often. the Ukrainian units are forced to maintain untenable positions, the elastic defense being behind their small advanced positions rather than in front (…) instead of exchanging space for attrition or allowing commanders to lead a mobile defense”.

And also to quote the costly counterattacks aimed at reclaiming lost positions. “including those which were initially untenable”, instead of focusing on stabilization of the front.

In a long investigation Published by the Wall Street Journal. several Ukrainian soldiers and officers described an army returned, three years after the start of the total invasion of Russia, to a rigid mode of combat inherited from the Soviet era.

This system. marked by a centralized command and a distrust of the initiative of the subordinates, generates losses deemed unnecessary and feeds frustration in the ranks. “If you are stupid. obedient, they leave you quiet,” summarizes Lieutenant-Colonel Serhiy Kostyshyn, who says he had to break the orders to save his men.

The testimonies evoke repeated assaults with behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian low strategic value. refusal of tactical pensions which are however necessary and a morale at half mast, complicating recruitment as the ability to contain a numerically higher Russia.

Critics are particularly aimed at General Oleksandr Syrsky. who became commander -in -chief in 2024, behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian accused of having strengthened a Soviet approach after the more improvised and decentralized beginnings of the war.

Director of the prolonged. murderous defense of Bakhmut, he won the nickname “butcher” among the troops, which accuse him of microchipping operations, delaying pensions and ordering expensive assaults for symbolic objectives. “They were young and motivated … Instead, we simply lost them,” said Captain Oleksandr Shyrshyn, after seeing his men fall during operations deemed unrealistic.

“General Valery Zaloujny was not exactly the embodiment of the reform. miracles on the battlefield, but when the two are compared, Oleksandr Syrsky is particularly distinguished by his resistance to any change and by his echo in the political agenda, such as the refusal to intensify mobilization”, analysis of Tatarigami_ua.

Behind "breakthrough" eastern ukraine, russian

At the height of its offensive capacities?

For the former Ukrainian officer, Russia could be reaching “the peak” of its offensive capacities, especially around Pokrovsk. The planned outfit behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian of a meeting between Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump on August 15 would push Moscow to create “the worst possible conditions” for the Ukrainian forces, in order to strengthen his position at the negotiation table.

>> Review the 12:45 am report on the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin:

The recent Russian advances could thus be used to illustrate a situation where the Ukrainian. army would be close to a encirclement.

Tatarigami_ua therefore believes that this is an ideal political moment for Moscow. which would have “much reason to keep its reserves” and behind “breakthrough” eastern ukraine, russian would seek to garner the most territorial gains as possible before this deadline. The next few days should show whether Russia still has margins to intensify its offensives. if it has already reached the full power of its greatest grouping on the front.

Tristan Duke