Weakness of the dollar
The month of July was also marked by a small grooming of the greenback (+ 3.19 %), which still lost some 10 % of its value compared to the euro since Donald Trump arrived at the White House in January 2025. This weakness of the dollar, wanted by the American president, is obviously a determining element for exporting companies. As the economist Etienne de Callataÿ recalls, “The weakness of the dollar is likely to have two favorable effects on the profits of American companies. The first is that this decline makes goods and services more competitive and/or allows American exporters to increase their prices and therefore their margins. The second is a so -called translational effect. The benefits they make outside the US, for an amount in unchanged currencies, increase in dollar “.
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Aeronautical sector
But what are the companies that take the most from the drop in the dollar and Trump policy in general? Xavier Servais, managing director of the investment consulting company Delande, thinks that “It may seem a bit early “ To take stock. Especially since “The first quarter was characterized by preventive storage purchases before the increase in customs duties “. The analyst still perceives some clear trends. “”A proven beneficiary is Boeing. The exemption from customs duties for the aeronautical sector may not be unrelated “he explains. And to note that the market capitalization of the American aircraft manufacturer “has once again exceeded that of Airbus, despite five years of consecutive losses, negative equity and accidents that have occurred in recent months. Since its lowest course in early April, Boeing action has rebounded 70 % against 32 % for Airbus “.
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The analyst also quotes General Electric, a major player in aircraft engines, in companies that have been doing well since the arrival of Trump as well as Howmet Aerospace, LH3HARRIS (which notably manufactures rocket engines). He finally notes that “Technological values like Meta, Oracle or Google have also been spared by tariff increases and the absence of retaliatory measures, a moment mentioned by the European Union”.
Still in the winning department, Frank Vranken, chief economist at the private bank Edmond de Rothschild Europe, quotes, meanwhile, Coca-Cola and Pepsi Cola, Netflix, 3m (Scotch, Post-it, etc.) or Levis. “”All these companies have increased their guidance for the rest of the year “he comments. And to recall the estimate of the Goldman Sachs business bank according to which a 1 % drop in the dollar goes hand in hand with a 0.5 % increase in the Standard US Brasser & Poor’s.
For Ford, prices have an impact on the results which will be 2 billion in 2025. It is a significant amount for a sector where the margins are already quite low and which faces a complete mutation “
Significant amount
On the side of losing companies, we find the automotive sector, which suffers from importing many spare parts or steel. He is “Whoever suffers the most from Donald Trump’s policy. For Ford (which announced a loss of $ 36 million in the second quarter, editor’s note), prices have an impact on the results which will be 2 billion in 2025. It is a significant amount for a sector where the margins are already quite low and which faces a complete mutation“, Note, for his part, Christophe Pirson, Fund Manager at Capitalatwork.
“General Motors and Ford did not display good results in the first quarter and in the case of Tesla, there is added the controversial personality of Elon Musk who had a significant impact on the image of the brand “complete Xavier Servais.
Iphones produced in India
Giants like Apple or Amazon could also see the wind turn even if the latest figures are reassuring. On the occasion of the publication of Amazon’s results last week, Sky Canaves, analyst at Emarketer, pointed out that the impact of American trade policies is still limited to sales of the online commerce giant in view of “customs duties suspensions “ and of “A consumption that has remained solid during the period “.” Recent trade tensions even offered Amazon an opportunity to increase its market share in online trade in the United States “referring to Shein and Temu, the Chinese electronic commerce giants who have lost the exemption from customs duties enjoyed by the small parcels sent from China.
For Apple, which has greatly increased its production of iphones in India in recent years, Trump threats to India are not a priori augue.
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It is obviously premature to assess the longer term effects of Trump policy. Especially since this policy, in addition to fluctuating incessantly, still has many unknowns, in particular concerning the prices that will be applied to China.
In addition, these effects will be strongly linked to the upcoming attitude of American consumers. “You have to see how the consumer will react and what will be the elasticity of the prices”recalls Frank Vranken. As we will have to see if consumer confidence will not be shaken by this very changing policy and by a less favorable economic situation if we are based on the latest employment figures.