My dear impertinent, dear sassy,
“France, a bad student in the landscape of debt in Europe” has just titled AFP recently and for good reason … rates at 5 French years are now higher than Italian rates at 5 years. Clearly, France borrows more expensive than Italy. In even more clearly, the risk premium for France is higher than for Italy!
This should still alarm the housewife under the age of 50 even ahead of BFMTV who prefers to make “direct” on the street, to tell us that it is too hot outside because of global warming.
We must now monitor what is called 10 years, which are borrowing rates at 10 years. If the 10-year-old French passes above 10 years Italian then it will be a sign of worsening the situation and above all a strong sign of the arrival of a crisis on French debt.
This could be the case from the start of the school year with the presentation of the Bayrou budget in the Council of Ministers announced for October 2025.
Fall will be complicated to negotiate for the country’s finances and I will tell you about it for a long time in the strategy file of July.
It is already too late, but everything is not lost.
Prepare!
Charles Sannat
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