François Bayrou exhibits his ideas this Tuesday to generate 40 billion euros in savings. An equation with several unknowns which is the subject of several hypotheses.
It’s the big day for François Bayrou. The Prime Minister must present his plan on Tuesday to achieve 40 billion euros in savings and restore public finances of France. A balancingist exercise, in a hazardous commercial context due to the customs duties of the Trump administration and a geopolitical environment weakened by the war in Ukraine.
According to information from BFMTV, exchanges have taken place several times with the President of the Republic in recent days. A timing meeting with several ministers concerned was held in Matignon on Saturday and in his speech held at the Hôtel de Brienne on July 13, Emmanuel Macron spoke of “a punctual effort of all”.
There is currently no confirmation that a track will be privileged compared to the others, but four options are envisaged within the central block.
The serious track of a budgetary gel
This is a hypothesis that has been actively circulating for several weeks, that of a budgetary freezing, to leave in 2026 on envelopes similar to 2025 for the budgets of different ministries.
Inflation would therefore not be taken into account, which would allow the State to save money, between 5 and 10 billion depending on the different costing.
The budgetary freeze should not, however, concern the Ministry of the Armed Forces, Emmanuel Macron having announced an acceleration of the increase in defense spending by 2027.
Will this “white year” really be? It is not currently established if the budgetary freezing would also apply to social benefits and pensions.
On this subject, François Bayrou could be placed in the National Assembly. At the NFP, at the RN and even among the Republicans, this budgetary freeze is very criticized. François-Xavier Bellamy declared to the microphone of BFM Politique that this hypothesis was “intellectual laziness”.
Request a contribution to the wealthiest retirees
If a budgetary freezing applied to pension pensions, a compensation system would exist for the most modest retirees.
On the other hand, as mentioned for several years in public debate, the wealthiest retirees would be well put to use.
The idea was mentioned in January by the Minister of Labor Astrid Panosyan, creating controversy at the time. But since then, the subject has made its way in particular among the social partners. A weight argument for François Bayrou, attached to the social dialogue method.
Again, the risk of tensions with the LR partner is serious, the right having at heart to save an electorate possibly key in 2027.
A more global tax increase for the richest?
If François Bayrou repeated that the priority should be placed on the reduction of state expenditure, he did not completely exclude, on LCI Thursday evening, tax increases: “There may be special efforts here and there”.
An exceptional contribution on high income exists in the 2025 budget, it could therefore be renewed. It is estimated that it can bring around 3 billion euros. Will François Bayrou be sensitive to the recent debate on the Zucman tax or will he want to ask for more?
Rationalized state agencies?
The Minister of Public Accounts Amélie de Montchalin hoped in April “2 to 3 billion euros in savings” by merging or removing a third of the agencies and operators of the State.