(Zonebourse.com) – After aligning two increase sessions, the Paris Stock Exchange should start the session on a more prudent note Thursday before several indicators that will test the increasingly clear prospects of a next drop in the rates of the American federal reserve.
Around 8:05 am, the ‘Future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – August delivery – fell from 6.5 points to 7,800 points, revealing an opening to balance, or even in slight withdrawal.
All global stock markets had continued their favorable momentum yesterday, reassuring inflation figures published on Tuesday in the United States having continued to propel the clues up, investors hoping that the American central bank will soften its policy in September.
Favored by the dominant feeling that the Fed could reduce the rent of money at the end of its reunion at the start of the school year, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite scored new historical highest High.
Over the whole week, the Dow Jones won 1.7%, while the S&P and the NASDAQ are both displayed 1.2%gains.
By way of comparison, the CAC has increased more modestly by 0.8% since Monday, even if the Parisian index managed to cross the psychological threshold of the 7,800 points that it had sunk in late July yesterday. Europe STOXX 600 is advancing 0.7% this week, so that it is only 3% of its record reached last March.
While Wall Street is evolving at summits, investors will carefully study the economic indicators of the next few days to try to detect new indices on the rate of rates and to assess the chances of prosecution of the recent ‘rally’ of shares.
Among the most anticipated indicators of the coming session are the last figures for the GDP in the euro zone, which should confirm that growth has only reached 0.1% in the region in the second quarter.
In the United States, production prices and unemployment benefits will help clarify the monetary prospects on the other side of the Atlantic.
But it is above all the retail sales figures, expected tomorrow, which risk moving the market, at a time when some analysts fear that households are not starting to reduce their consumption in the face of slowing down the labor market and the establishment of customs surcharges.
If the season of results are now coming to an end, the prospects for the results of companies are another subject of interest.
On this point, the equipment supplier of American networks Cisco largely reassured investors last night by revealing better than expected results and encouraging forecasts for the boom in investments linked to AI.
Société Générale, however, stresses that a situation has ever been seen so far where interest rate expectations are falling and where companies’ benefits are increasing securely.
‘This can mean two things,’ said Andrew Lapthorne, the research manager ‘Quant’ at SG. ‘Either the markets are still mistaken in thinking that rates will drop, or, as we have shown in several graphs recently, the real profitability of American companies is in fact much less good than what official figures suggest.
At Bofa, it is emphasized that only 5% of investors currently anticipate a brutal landing of the American economy and that 14% of them overwhelmed the shares within their portfolio.
Investors, few in this summer break period, could nevertheless begin to be reluctant to take too important positions in the anticipation of the outfit in Alaska, of the long-awaited meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the New York billionaire who said Trump said that the Russian president would suffer ‘very heavy consequences’ if he refused to conclude a ceasefire in Ukraine.