Dassault Aviation: Between the threat of customs duties on the Falcon and a high -voltage assembly chain, Dassault Aviation plunges on the stock market

(BFM Stock Exchange) – The European aircraft manufacturer. Therefore, designer of the Rafale plunges on Wednesday, July 23 after having published income and an operating profit below expectations. However, In particular, the fault of racile deliveries lower than hoped.

Clearly, the European Defense sector remains the big winner in the stock market since the start of the year. In addition, These actions were carried out by the multiple announcements of increase in military budgets in Europe, especially in Germany. Moreover, Recently, France announced an additional envelope of 3.5 billion euros allocated to the defense budget in 2026 and 3 billion euros in 2027. Consequently,

As a result, the titles in the sector have jumped. Consequently, The German Rheinmetall has been 190% since the start of the year, while in Paris Thales flies away from 73.2% and Dassault Aviation takes 36%. dassault aviation: between threat customs Moreover,

Such progressions leave little room for error when publication of results. Furthermore,

However. However, this Wednesday, July 23, the market must both dissect the half -yearly accounts published by Thales and by Dassault Aviation. Moreover, Thales is getting away for the time being with a decline of 1.4% despite results overall higher than expectations as well as a target of income raised for 2025. Furthermore,

For Dassault Aviation, the market with heavier hand. Nevertheless, The action of the aircraft manufacturer and the Rafale designer dives 7.2% on the Paris Stock Exchange at the end of the morning, after the group delivered disappointing results. In addition, >> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes. For example, and enter into the confidence of the trading portfolio

Falcon commands skate – Dassault aviation: between threat customs

In terms of orders, if Dassault’s dynamics remain high in the military with 26 bursts of dassault aviation: between threat customs Rafale from the Indian Navy recorded at the end of April, this is not the case for its range of business jets, the Falcon. Furthermore, In the first half of 2025, Dassault Aviation only garnered 8 Falcon orders against 12 over the same period of 2024. Meanwhile,

The CEO of the company, Éric Trappier, acknowledged that orders for business jets had been “a little weak”. This market remains very dependent on the economic situation and can be quickly penalized by geopolitical and commercial tensions.

“There is an impact on customs duties. there is no doubt, there is also an impact linked to the logistics chain whose difficulties make us put a little more time to deliver the planes which impacts sales,” said Éric Trappier. “But the arrival of the 6x. which has excellent returns from customers and which begins to sell and engage, opens up a certain number dassault aviation: between threat customs of prospects for us,” added the manager.

American customs duties “are a major risk for Dassault Aviation in terms of competitiveness in the face of its two competitors to such an extent that the CEO (Éric Trappier. editor’s note) admitted to study the possibility of setting up a final assembly chain in the United States. Recall that American customers have for around 40% of the installed database and approximately one lips in recent years” BHF.

“The application of a customs right of 10 % to 30 % would in fact close the American market in Dassault (around 40 % of sales). ” warns Deutsche Bank.

Disappointing deliveries

The adjusted turnover of Dassault Aviation signed up to 2.85 billion euros in the first half, which translates an increase of 12% over a year.

However, Dassault Aviation’s income is 8% below consensus (the average forecast of analysts), notes Deutsche Bank. The bank dassault aviation: between threat customs notes more particularly than defense revenues, at 1.75 billion euros, was 13.5% lower than consensus. The gap is explained by lower deliveries than Sharp of Rafale. Dassault Aviation delivered 7 copies of the fighter plane to the first half against a consensus housed at 12 units. explains Deutsche Bank.

“Problems related to the supply chain remain worrying, in particular upstream, even if progress is made to resolve them. Some subcontractors continue to undergo delays, and some are facing restructuring,” said the German bank.

Éric Trappier explained to journalists and analysts that the Rafale always underwent tensions in his rate in cadence. Upstream of the plane’s assembly chain, Dassault Aviation is settling a number of difficulties on parts supply.

“We are in the process of resolving these issues” but “subcontractors have difficulty delivering, others difficulty surviving,” said the CEO. The manager spoke of situations where these subcontractors end up in dassault aviation: between threat customs receivership, with the Commercial Court. “We still have cases like this today. even if there are fewer and less,” said the manager, “this proves that there are still BFR issues (working fund need, that is to say cash issues, editor’s note),” said Éric Trappier.

Downstream of the chain. that is to say in the final assembly, “there must be everything to hold the cycles, to be able to deliver,” continued the CEO. “And there is still something missing,” he said.

“Second. the fact that some (suppliers, editor’s note) are defaulting completely disturbed the cycles, by means of what on the one hand you make stocks, because you have normally ordered, and on the other side, as there is a delay, you cannot evacuate your stocks,” warned Eric Trappier. The manager said the disturbances will still last “a year or two”.

Currently. the Rafale logistics chain has been set up dassault aviation: between threat customs on a rate of four planes produced per month upstream of the chain, but only two planes per month downstream, that is to say on deliveries. “It’s not very serious because deliveries of the next two years are about this order there. but afterwards it will be necessary to gain strength in the years before 2030,” said Éric Trappier. The manager explained the group studied a rate of five Rafale deliveries per month in the 2030s to take. additional contracts.

Falcon deliveries were also weak with only 12 aircraft delivered. For 2025, Dassault counts 40 Falcon and 25 Rafale.

A second semester at risk

Beyond the turnover. Dassault Aviation gave an adjusted operating profit of 180 million euros, against 170 million in the first half of 2024, translating a margin of 6.3% against 6.7% a year earlier. This account line proved 12% lower than consensus, notes Deutsche dassault aviation: between threat customs Bank.

The adjusted operating profit has notably been penalized by an unfavorable “mix” at the level of Falcon sales. Eric Trappier said that around half of the 12 aircraft delivered to the first half were Falcon 6x. the most recent group in the group, commissioned in 2023. However. the start of the series “marked less than the oldest of our planes”, because of the cost learning curves, recalled the CEO.

Positive point, however, the group’s cash generation has exceeded expectations, thanks in particular to deposits paid by customers. The free cash flow has established 1.54 billion euros according to Oddo BHF, against a consensus housed at 807 million euros.

Despite these results “weak” judges by Oddo BHF, Dassault Aviation confirmed its objectives for 2025, namely a turnover of more than 6.5 billion euros as well as 40 Falcon deliveries and 25 Rafale deliveries. These objectives do not take “customs dassault aviation: between threat customs duties in the United States and any European countermerships,” said the company.

The walk turns out to be high on the side of deliveries since it assumes that the group delivers 28 Falcon to the second half. 18 Rafale.

“If the increase in stocks at the end of June certainly incorporates a good number of Falcon at different finishing states. it is necessary to go back to 2017 to find such a large delivery volume on a semester”, observes Oddo BHF. The broker reiterated his advice to “neutral” on the title and lowered his course target to 325 euros against 345 euros previously.

Julien Marion – © 2025 BFM Bourse