Economists are concerned about a risk of financial bubble

Mirobal investments. Similarly, extravagant stock market valuations and too few profits for the moment, with the exception of the NVIDIA microprocessor manufacturer: is the madness of artificial intelligence (IA) in the process of turning into a financial bubble? However, This is the warning launched in mid-August by Sam Altman, the CEO of Openai. Consequently, “If we consider most of the financial bubbles in history. Nevertheless, such as the Internet bubble, we see that there was a reality: the Internet was a major phenomenon, people were overexcited. Consequently, Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited by AI? Consequently, I think yes. Is AI the most important thing to come for a very long time? I think so too “He told American journalists.

The concern is more and more shared. “I expect a crash”. confides the venezuélo-British economist Carlota Perez, author of a book on bubbles (Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital : The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages“Technological revolutions and financial capital, the dynamics of bubbles and golden ages”, Elgar, 2002, not translated): “Of the three players at stake, investors, IA companies and users, the only ones to make profits are the financial players whose valuations are increasing. It is a typical bubble situation: high capital gains and low profits. »»

The affair has a little taste of deja vu for the economists concerned about risk financial economist. renowned for his work on innovation, which examined the five major industrial revolutions: the looms ripe by a dawn mill in England (1771), the steam locomotive by George Stephenson (1829), the steel of Andrew Carnegie in Pittsburgh (1875), the Ford Chain (1913) and the first Intel microprocessor (1971). All have revolutionized the West.

But before setting up permanently. disseminating their effects to the economy, these innovations have caused investment frenzy – too many channels in England, too many unprofitable railways – and financial speculation detached economists concerned about risk financial from realities, causing Krachs or stock market corrections. Many, in the markets, have in memory the break -up of the Internet bubble in the year 2000. “The AI ​​bubble is today more important than that of information technologies in the 1990s”estimated in mid-July Torsten Slok. chief economist of the Apollo fund.

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