The future of the unpopular Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seems compromised after a bitter electoral defeat that made him lose the majority in the Senate, against the backdrop of inflation and push of the far -right party without Eeito.
During the elections on Sunday, during which were renewed 125 of the 248 seats of the High Chamber, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLDConservative right) of Mr. Ishiba and his ally Komeito (Center right) only earned 47 seats in their own, according to the official results reported on Monday by television NHK and other media.
Although superior to the initial projections of local media, this result remains below the 50 seats necessary for the two parties to keep their majority. They will only have 122 senators, even if the very fragmented opposition does not appear able to form an alternative majority.
The Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his coalition Komeito party has lost seats.
Photo: Getty Images / Buddhika Weerasinghe
What exacerbate speculation about a resignation from Shigeru Ishiba, 68, in office for only ten months.
The situation is difficult, we must examine it very humbly and seriously. […] I want to be aware of our responsibility
he commented on Sunday evening. Declarations which, according to the local press, suggest that he intends to stay in office.
The secretary general and number two of the PLDHiroshi Moriyama, has estimated that it was necessary to avoid any political emptiness.
The secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), Hiroshi Moriyama, reacts to his arrival at the PLD headquarters in Tokyo, on July 20, 2025.
Photo: Getty Images / Franck Robichon / AFP
On the one hand, some consider that trade negotiations still underway with the Trump administration could offer him a stay. On the other, the Prime Minister himself had declared to aim at 50 seats: with a lower result, it would probably be logical that he resigns.
It could be replaced, but we do not yet know who
confirms to the France-Presse agency (AFP) Hidehiro Yamamoto, professor of political science at the University of Tsukuba.
The government coalition has already been a minority in the lower room of Parliament for a debacle in the anticipated legislative elections of autumn, which Mr. Ishiba himself summoned after having taken the head of the head of the PLD.
In minority in the two rooms
?
The PLD governing Japan in an almost uninterrupted way since 1955 despite frequent changes of leaders.
Japan has a bicameral parliamentary system. Parliament (the diet) is made up of two rooms, representatives (lower room) and advisers (upper bedroom). The members of the two chambers are elected by the people and have legislative powers.
However, it is the House of Representatives, made up of 465 members, which is of greater importance. The room of advisers is made up of 248 members.
Japan now enters On unknown terrain with a minority government in the two chambers of Parliament, an unprecedented situation since the Second World War
Recalls Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University.
The Constitutional Democratic Party (center left), the main opposition force, has won 22 seats, and the Democratic Party of the People (centrist) 17 seats.
Above all, the anti-immigration populist party without a slogan Japan first
makes a strong breakthrough with 14 seats won, while there are only two in the current assembly.
Due to their absence of majority at the diet, the PLD And Komeito had to compromise with the opposition to have their texts vote, even though the economic situation darkens.
The question of inflation
Inflation remains strong (+3.3 % in June, excluding fresh products), pulled by a vertiginous outbreak of rice prices, which have doubled in the space of a year.
Basic prices increase, but I am especially worried that wages do not increase
said on Sunday Atsushi Matsuura, 54, in a polling station in Tokyo.
To alleviate the inflationary effect, Shigeru Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended energy grants and has committed to paying citizens’ assistance checks. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.
The incidence of Donald Trump’s customs tariffs
In addition, the customs offensive of Donald Trump plunged car sales in the United States by a quarter, a sector that represents 8 % of jobs in the archipelago. The threat of generalized surcharge of 25 % on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.
While the Japanese negotiator went seven times to the United States, talks with Washington are bogging. Before the election, Shigeru Ishiba had displayed a maximalist strategy consisting in claiming the total elimination of customs duties.
The financial markets are concerned, them, budgetary drifts, the massifs of recovery and aid plans of the Ishiba government aggravating already heavy debt. Several Tokyo bond emissions have been shunned in recent months, caught up the Japanese rates.
The push of the Sanseeito, which encroaches on the vote PLDwas also closely monitored.
This training advocates hardened rules and restrictions
In terms of immigration, castigates the globalism
denounces gender policies radicals
And calls for recondizing vaccination and decarbonation strategies.
Under pressure due to positions deemed prorusians, the Sanseeito fiercely denied having everything related to Moscow.
They express what I think but that I couldn’t say for a long time
said recently to theAFP A voter during a party gathering.