End of natural increase in France: should we worry?

For the first time in a long time, deaths are superior to births in France. However, Is it really a surprise, or have we simply forgotten to look at the trends? Therefore, This planned moment is actually a consequence of the end of the demographic transition. Moreover, engaged at the end of the 18th century.

Without waiting for the annual assessment that INSEE publishes each year in January. Meanwhile, the economist François Geerolf has just announced that the natural balance of France was already negative over 12 months (between May 2024 and May 2025). Consequently, What to say? Meanwhile, The natural balance is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Consequently, During the last 12 months, there have therefore been more deaths than births in France.

A surprise? Moreover, Not really, especially since some demographers like end natural increase france: should Sandra Brée and Didier Breton had already challenged this possibility. Moreover, A historical and international perspective will help us to understand what we are witnessing today.

An expected result of the demographic transition – End natural increase france: should

Mortality corresponds to the number of deaths counted over a year. Furthermore, which is generally expressed in the form of a gross rate by bringing it back to the average population of the year. Moreover, The birth rate is its equivalent for births. In addition, Their difference gives natural increase. Therefore, In France. Therefore, the annual annual mortality rate in the 18th century^e century was around 35 deaths per 1000 inhabitants, compared to 10 per 1000 today. Additionally, Therefore, The birth rate was also almost equal to 35 per 1000 at that time: the natural increase rate was therefore low.

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The transition from high mortality. Meanwhile, birth rate rate (leading to a low natural increase) at low rates (and therefore also modest, even negative) is designated under the term of demographic transition. Meanwhile, Jean-Claude Chesnais’ work remains the reference to understand this phenomenon, and recalls the French specificities. This demographic moment is however universal: he started in France. England at the end of the 18th^e A century before occurring everywhere else, with more or less time lag.

It is usually economic development and social change that are mentioned to explain this transition. The decrease in mortality. in particular that of end natural increase france: should infantile mortality, manifests itself by better survival which makes it less necessary to have many children to hope to keep descendants. In the usual configuration of the demographic transition. the mortality rate decreases first, while the birth rate remains high: this situation generates a high natural increase rate. Then, the birth rate in turn drops to the mortality rate, which makes natural increase slow down. The latter finally oscillates around 0, and can even become negative.

If France was a pioneer in the demographic transition. the movement of its birth rate was singular: it began to decrease very early, causing a very moderate increase in its natural increase. This earned him in particular to see the population of England surpass her.

At the end of the 19th century^e A century. in France, we measure negative natural increase rates which could suggest that the demographic transition is in the process of end natural increase france: should completion: the raw mortality and birth rate rates are then around 20 per 1000. This must remind us that France has already experienced negative natural increase rates.

However. from the start of the XX^e A century, and with the exception of war periods, natural increase has taken up in France, carried by fertility greater than 2 children per woman. Fertility measures the average number of children that women have. and should not be confused with birth rate, that is to say the number of births in a given society: it also depends on the number of women of age to have children in the population.

The long consequences of baby-boom

At the end of the Second World War. everywhere in Europe, fertility goes upwards, resulting in an increase in the birth rate. We call baby-boom This period during which France knows the strongest natural increase in its history.

In 1973, when the baby boom stopped, fertility descends quickly to reach a minimum of 1.66 children per woman in 1993 and 1994. She dates back to 2.02 in 2010, before resuming her fall until today. Births were more than 800. 000 per year in 2014, and dropped suddenly since: there are still 663,000 in 2024, a relatively high figure which is explained by the large number of women of children in the population. Thanks in particular to the regular drop in mortality at all ages, natural increase had so far not too weakened. Nevertheless. there has been an increase in the number of deaths since 2005, due to the end of life of generations born before the 2^ee World War. end natural increase france: should This movement intensifies with the aging of baby-boomersborn from 1946.

The other European countries have experienced very different dynamics: Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece have experienced a negative natural increase since the 1990s, due to very low fertiles – for several decades below 1.5 children per woman for many countries. In Germany, this situation has lasted since the mid -1970s.

In this context, France has therefore long been an exception. If the birth rate does not go back in the coming months. 2025 will be the first year when this country will experience a natural negative increase for more than a century, outside periods of war.

End natural increase france: should

What consequences for the growth of the French population?

The French population has long since always said – its general population growth has been saying to its natural growth. The increase in the population linked to migration, although always positive, was so far less than natural growth.

Today. the natural balance becoming negative, it is the migratory balance (that is to say the difference between the number of end natural increase france: should arrivals and departures of the territory) which will ensure the continuity of French population growth. It will therefore not stop. even if it will slow down: it will also be based more on immigration than on its natural dynamics. The fact remains that the number of births remains greater than 600. 000 per year, while the arrivals of migrants in the territory reach only 250,000. This corresponds, once deducted departures, to a migratory balance of 100,000 to 150,000 people per year.

It thus arises much children in French territory than there will be new residents. The fertility of the latter is also quickly modeled on the fertility of host countries. Not only is the risk of a “big replacement” is not real. but relatively recent studies also emphasize that the French integration model still works very well.

The aging of the population will mechanically maintain mortality at a higher level end natural increase france: should for several decades. The birth rate will only be able to go back up that if fertility increases. However. it is difficult to see clearly on the conditions which could allow such an increase in fertility: if it is first linked to the individual desires of couples, the factors that influence these desires are difficult to model.

Towards the end of a French exception

The French fertility. birth rate have long remained exceptions in Europe, and, apart from a few demographers, few saw the dropout of births from 2015. With 10 years of decline, we now understand that trends have changed. If the tilting towards negative natural balances does not strictly speaking of a break. it is all the same a symbolic moment, which puts in front of the scene the question of the evolution of the French population and the possible consequences of this evolution for society.

These consequences end natural increase france: should are varied and will undoubtedly affect the economy – starting with the financing of pensions. Cultural. geographic questions will no doubt arise also, since this situation will question the place of young people in a society where they will be fewer and fewer, while accentuating the inequalities between the territories according to the number of seniors residing there.

However. this is not quite a leap into the unknown: German society has faced this situation for 50 years, most other European countries for at least thirty years. French society should also be able to adapt to it.