An air of deja
During his first warrant as president, Donald Trump had signed a similar agreement with China. On January 15, 2020, Beijing had indeed committed to increasing its imports of American products for an amount of $ 200 billion over two years (in 2020 and 2021). China’s commitments covered a wide range of American manufactured goods, as well as agricultural and energy products.
Trump forces Europe to supply himself in the United States: “Buying $ 250 billion in American energy, it makes no sense”
Regarding energy products, China had undertaken to increase its imports up to $ 26.2 billion in 2020 and $ 41.6 billion in 2021. And, according to the White House press release, this increase was to be perpetuated beyond 2021 in order to rebalance the trade balance between the two blocks.
It was nothing in the end. Indeed, according to data provided by the Argus consultant, China has never respected its commitments in terms of American energy imports. Also according to Argus, the United States has exported energy to the Chinese market for an amount of $ 9.6 billion in 2020 and $ 14.5 billion in 2021. We were therefore only 36 % and 35 % of the target set in the agreement between the United States and China respectively.
“The real problem is our dependence on American gas”
The coronavirus pandemic logically had an impact, downwards, on energy consumption in 2020 and 2021. However, in the following years, American energy exports have not increased on the Chinese market. We were still $ 13 billion exported to China in 2024, well below the target of $ 41.6 billion set for 2021.
It is therefore likely that Europe will do the same as China with regard to its American energy import commitments.
American LNG occupies a growing place
That said, the United States could still increase its exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the European market. Recall that the American LNG occupies an increasingly important place in the European supply. According to theInstitute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 55 % of LNG imported on the European market, in the first half of 2025, came from the United States. Taking into account the entire gas (LNG and gas transported by gas pipelines), the United States represented 27 % of the European supply in the first half of 2025.
If the United States had to replace the entire Russian gas in the European supply, dependence in the USA would become even more important. Something to worry Febeliec, the Belgian federation which represents the industry strongly consuming energy.