From 34 to 45 devices: a minimum rise in power?
According to Wally Struys, economist at the Royal Military School, “34 planes, it’s a little too little from a strategic point of view for a air force which is not integrated into a European force. The 11 additional devices are really a minimum. We heard about 24 a few weeks ago“, As the Minister of Defense Theo Francken (N-VA) hoped.
B-2 Spirit, the stealthy flying wing with two billion dollars: “It is a huge advantage for the Americans”
He adds, by sweeping the criticisms made to the F-35 for its cost or the fact that Belgium does not buy “European”: “Once a weapon system is chosen, like the F-35, you have to stick to it for a few decades. Changing or breaking the contract would cost too much. Even if the F-35 is expensive for purchase, maintenance and maintenance. It was not necessarily the best choice, but now it must be maintained. “
Impayable ?
The purchase of the 11 additional planes is therefore estimated at around 1 billion euros. Although the Belgian army is guaranteed to obtain a substantial envelope to achieve the objective of the 5% of defense and security expenditure required by NATO, the State is looking for funding means (including the partial sale of Belfius).
On the question of financial sustainability, the aviation expert Xavier Tytelman points to an argument challenging: “I think the Belgian government is making a strategic error. The American Court of Auditors itself says that this program is not sustainable. Switzerland (where the debates on the real cost of the plane resurface at the political level, editor’s note) has already started to realize it (…). But in Belgium, as the F-35 have an insufficient availability rate, we prefer to order more … The winners, they are the Americans“. It must be recognized that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) American has published several critical reports on the explosion of costs of the F-35 program in the United States, as well as on the real technical availability of the plane. The last date of 2024. Note however that Xavier Tytelman, as a former French Rafale pilot, recognizes himself having a biased” pro-raf ” does not hide.
He believes that a mixed fleet – as in Greece, which bought 24 Rafale and 20 F -35 – would be more economically rational: “They have a few F-35 for the specific missions where stealth counts, and bursts for the rest. It costs less to have a double fleet. If Belgium kept 34 F-35 and bought 20 bursts, it would save billions of euros“He says.”Even by duplicating certain equipment, it would remain cheaper than the F-35. Forming a pilot on F-35 or Rafale is an initial investment of a few tens of millions, but afterwards, you save 20,000 euros for each hour of flight “.
The future fleet of Belgian F-35 could go from 34 to 55 devices
Indeed, the cost of F-35 flight time is estimated at more than $ 36,000. For the Rafale, “It is 20,000 euros, training of pilots and parts included“He says.
For Wally Struys, who defends the idea of producing European, the idea of having a double fleet is nevertheless illusory. “For a small country like Belgium, which will already have to manage the end of the F-16 at the same time as the arrival of the F-35, consider another plane, with other pilots, it is impossible. It is a track valid only for large countries, which may need several types of planes“.
Special hangars for the F-35
The F-35 also requires specific infrastructure in terms of maintenance, cybersecurity and thermal regulation. It remains at this level, however much less restrictive than devices like the B-2 Spirit, which recently bombed Iran. Investments encrypted up to 300 million euros in Belgium, which increases the bill.
Wally Struys confirme : “F-16 hangars are no longer usable. It was necessary to reconstruct everything. We often talk about the cost of planes, but we must integrate everything related to tools, infrastructure, logistical support, on 35 or 40 years“.
Industrial repercussions: Where is Belgium?
The fallout for Belgian industry are a blurred point. According to certain estimates, Belgium now hopes up to 700 million euros in repercussions, against more than two billion advanced in the past, while planes intended for Belgium will be assembled in Italy.
“For the F-35, the fallout will necessarily be more disappointing than for the F-16”
Wally Struys remains skeptical: “I heard these figures, but I cannot confirm them. It’s very discreet. We entered the program late. Too late for the research and development part (R&D). We are just in spare parts, and again, in competition with other countries that have also bought F-35.”
He recalls that the F-16 contract of 1975, the “contract of the century” for Belgium, since companies like SABCA were very strongly involved in production, was an exception. “”This is a unique case of industrial success. We will probably never see that again. For the F-35, the benefits will necessarily be more disappointing “.
Stéphane Burton, active industrialist on the F-35: “We must go to a war economy”
According to a well -informed source from the active sector in the program, which wishes to keep anonymity, these industrial returns are even very limited. “”We can question the injection of public money, but the manufacturers are happy, that makes activity, while aviation remains one of the last Belgian industrial bastions where the cost of the workforce represents only a small part of the final cost, and is not likely to relocate “, advance our contact first.
“The advanced figures are swollen.”
“It’s just that the advanced figures are swollen. It is as for signatures, at the Salon du Hedgerow. These are often commitments, but not contracts with fixed amounts“He said later.
“Regarding jobs …. if we maintain 200 jobs in the sector, it’s less potential unemployment, it’s good. But 200 positions, it’s still the level of a small SME. It is few real benefits. But it’s true, we have a nice plane“, He jokes.
As a reminder, Belgium has invested 135 million euros (including around 90 million in 2022-2023 according to a report from the National Bank), mainly via the SFPI, in the Belightning joint venture, which brings together Sabca (Orizio), Sonaca and Asco, the three main Belgian Aviation actors active in the F-35 program. Note that other SMEs are also active, such as the Mouscronnoise Feronyl company.
“It was necessary to create Belightning to obtain the agreement of Lockheed Martin, who wanted a single interlocutor, to produce 400 pieces of horizontal entry, which represents around $ 400 million in turnover. But a large part of this money starts in the pockets of suppliers of raw materials and components that are not in Belgium.“, term–t.
Struction: a risky long -term bet?
Starting is one of the flagship arguments of the F-35, which convinced the General Staff of the Belgian army during the order in 2018. But its sustainability is debated. “Total stealth does not exist“, note Wally Struys. “If you multiply the radars, that you monitor all the space, the plane becomes identifiable“, he argues. Some observers even claim that with radars of different litters coupled with infrared detection systems, noise and other observation systems (potentially by satellite), all doped at AI to manage data, stealth could be undermined in the coming decades.
Does the cost of the F-35 risk penalizing the European defense industry? “It will be extremely painful for Belgium”
The stealth of the F-35 nevertheless allows it to currently escape certain anti-aircraft defense systems, such as the Russian S-400s, and the technological race is not frozen. It is this stealth that would have allowed Israel to carry out strikes in Iran with F-35, without being spotted upstream.
“Nothing guarantees that the F-35 is still furtive in ten years”
A specialized observer in the sector, who does not want to be cited either, tells us that the question of stealth “is very technical“And has”extremely important strategic implications“, and that it is therefore complicated to decide.
For Xavier Tytelman, this technology has flaws. “”Nothing guarantees that the F-35 is still stealthy in ten years “. He recalls that “France had succeeded in detecting an F-117 (Lockheed Martin furtive aircraft used in the 1990s -2000) Thanks to its Nostradamus radar. If countries like China or Russia manage to produce this type of wide spectrum radar, this would question the interest of stealth aircraft like the F-35“.
And after the F-35?
In the longer term, looks turn to the SCAF (Air Combat System of the future), developed jointly by France, Germany, Spain and Belgium as an observer.
“Defense Europe remains a project. Vladimir Putin has moved things well. But even in Belgium, we cannot rationalize our defense industry between our three regions.”
Pour Wally Struys, “The SCAF could cost less if all Europeans play the game. But for that, it takes cooperation, fewer industrial rivalries, as between France and Germany. We already have competitors such as the GCAP program (ex-Tempest) between the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan. This fragmentation does not play in favor of profitability, although the competition is positive in the research phase and development“The plane would cost the unit less if it is actually sold in” large quantities “, in many countries.”Defense Europe remains a project. Vladimir Putin stirred things well. But even in Belgium, we cannot rationalize our defense industry between our three regions. So on a European scale …“He ends, with cynicism.