The figures recall those of the time of the second referendum. In a “spectacular rise” of sovereignism which continues in young generation, 56 % of 18 to 34 years are now favorable to the independence of Quebec.
These data come from a crop survey obtained by The pressled in July and August to 1000 respondents. At the same time, they confirm the recent enthusiasm for sovereignty among young people, first noted by a light survey last June.
For Alain Giguère, president of the CROP firm, this “renewal” among 18-34 year olds is attributable to “disillusionment towards Ottawa’s ability to do something for their life”.
“It feels like less and less, Ottawa can do things or organize services for us,” he says.
We therefore have a movement among young people, who are convinced that their living conditions would improve if we became sovereign.
Alain Giguère, president of the CROP firm
Among Francophones, 50 % are favorable to sovereignty. In comparison, only 22 % of non-French speakers adhere to it. It is the demographic criterion that creates the greatest dissonance among the respondents.
In addition, respondents living in the Metropolitan Region of Montreal supports sovereignty at 38 %, compared to 45 % in the Metropolitan region of Quebec and 49 % in the rest of the province.
Overall, 44 % of respondents in the survey support the idea of Quebec’s independence, while 56 % of them are against. There were comparable statistics during the period preceding the 1995 referendum campaign.
Considerable rise
“Overall, we can say that these are very encouraging figures for sovereignists. It is a fairly considerable rise on the side of the yes ”, observes Jacques Beauchemin, associate professor in the Department of Sociology of UQAM and former political advisor of Pauline Marois.
Photo Hugo-Sébastien Aubert, the press archives
Jacques Beauchemin, associate professor in the Department of Sociology of UQAM
It is a total trend reversal. It has been years since young people were not there, that they [s’en désintéressaient]. I see a striking rise.
Jacques Beauchemin, associate professor in the Department of Sociology of UQAM
“I have the impression that young people, with the pricing conflict, rediscovered the virtues of the borders of the nation, as a basis for promoting and defending. They say to themselves: perhaps with representation, that with Quebec as sovereign countries, we could organize our struggle from Quebec interests, which are not necessarily Canadian interests. »»
Guillaume Rousseau, Director of Applied Law and Politics of the State at the University of Sherbrooke, said he was struck “by the force of the YES for young people”. He does not remember such a “configuration” since the sponsorship scandal in 2002, or even since the period of the second referendum.
“Obviously, the identity discourse of the Parti Québécois and the sovereignists does not put off young people, as one might think,” says Rousseau.
Photo David Boily, Archives La Presse
Guillaume Rousseau, Director of Applied Law and Policy Programs at the University of Sherbrooke
“There is a fundamental movement that is going through young people. It is a boil compared to two or three years ago, we see it on social networks and in shows, ”says Marc-Antoine Lemay, animator of Balado Generation yesreacting to the survey.
During the Francos, last June, the singer Lou-Adriane Cassidy set the microphone to a crowd of young people who chanted “Quebec, a country!” ». Songs with a strong sovereignist flavor of the young rapper Kinji00 are popular. On social networks, the pages producing referendum speeches accompanied by pieces of fringent cowboys are multiplying.
“This is the fundamental question: who will decide for us?” Canada or Quebec? Why would Quebec not be able to do like the others? Why haven’t we yet chosen to have a country and clearly belong to ourselves? “Add the 26 -year -old young man.
Decrease in 55 years and over
With 35-54 year olds, support in independent Quebec is 44 %. However, it decreases up to 37 % in the 55s and over, indicates the survey. It is the age group that is the least enthusiastic about this idea.
“It is the search for security or economic prudence that means that, in the current context, for them, it is not time to speak of sovereignty,” analyzes Alain Giguère.
Obviously, it is sometimes said that the elders vote more than young people. Participation rates are therefore to be monitored.
Guillaume Rousseau, Director of Applied Law and Policy Programs at the University of Sherbrooke
“Some will say that 44 %is as if the victory was at hand … Me, it seems a little optimistic to me. In 1980, there had not been a rise in yes during the campaign as in 1995. We cannot assume that it will happen again. But at the same time, it is rare for the supports to collapse, ”he continues.
More generally, Jacques Beauchemin wishes to qualify the increase in support, which he partially attributes to the conjuncture of American prices. “It’s too fast to say that independence is made. This is what politicians will say, but it is not as simple, ”he thinks.
The test of reality
If the proportion of respondents “favorable” to sovereignty is 44 %, it is actually 41 % of respondents, a little less, who would vote or would be tempted to vote “yes if the referendum took place today”. “This is the difference between dreams and reality,” assesses Alain Giguère. Going from fantasy to action, there is a small reserve. This trend is observed for all demographic categories of the survey.
Methodology
This crop survey was carried out in July and August. It has 1000 respondents. It was not ordered by an external organization. Two questions were asked: personally, are you very favorable, rather favorable, rather unfavorable or very unfavorable to the sovereignty of Quebec? The 44 % overalls bring together very favorable and rather favorable people, for example. Then: if there was a referendum today on Quebec’s sovereignty you voted or would you have been tempted to vote yes or no? The undecided option was not available.