“People say Trump is an old idiot. He is old, but he is not stupid, “says Reneo Lukic, professor of international relations in the Department of History of Laval University.
Donald Trump is above all a businessman. Since he was president, this real estate tycoon deals with diplomatic negotiations as transactions: I give you something and you give me something in return.
Initially, his strategy to put an end to the war in Ukraine consisted in coaxing the Russian president to convince him to withdraw. Especially since he boasted of having good relations with him and claimed to be able to reach him directly by phone.
“Trump thought that by making Putin gifts, it could lead him to make a concession. He is not naive: he knew that he would not get everything, but he hoped still to have something, “says Lukic.
The professor believes that the tenant of the White House sought to establish a compromise between Russia and Ukraine, similar to the demilitarized zone which separates South Korea and North Korea, where American soldiers are stationed.
A ceasefire was on the negotiating table, but he didn’t really interest Vladimir Putin.
“Russia claims to say yes, but has always said no. That is to say, she has always put so extreme conditions that return to Ukraine to capitulate, “explains Dominique Arel, holder of the Ukrainian Chair of Studies at the University of Ottawa.
Ukraine, it was sort of dismissed bilateral negotiations with the United States because it had nothing to give in exchange. “” You have no card to play “: that’s what Trump said to Volodymyr Zelensky,” said Reneo Lukic.
Talks still took place between Russians and Ukrainians in Istanbul, under pressure from the American president. They ended, last week, on an exchange of prisoners and soldiers killed, but still not on a cease-fire.
At the same time, Putin continued to bomb Ukrainian cities and even kyiv residential neighborhoods. It is very difficult to defend your “friend” in this case, says Lukic.
Situation turnaround
It is at this time that the president changes course. “Trump’s narcissism tells him that he must change strategy, otherwise we will make fun of him [parce qu’il a choisi le mauvais camp]Adds the professor of Laval University.
Dominique Arel also notes that the bombing of Ukrainian cities, and not military facilities, pushed Donald Trump to say that he was tired of his Russian counterpart.
“It is the first time in ten years that he publicly criticized Putin. During his first mandate, he never did it, and he did not do it either during that of Biden, “said Mr. Arel.
“Love telephone conversations are over,” adds Reneo Lukic.
Beyond the words, Trump has left the threat of new prices against Russia since Monday if it does not end the war “in 10 to 12 days”.
It would rather be secondary customs duties, since the countless sanctions imposed so far have not prevented Moscow from getting bogged down more in Ukraine.
What do we know about the controversial friendship between Trump and Putin? (Newsworthy French/Videoelephant)
In order for the conflict to end, the Kremlin must find itself in a dead end, according to Dominique Arel. Deprived of income from the sale of its oil, one of the rare Russian exports, the Russian war economy would run out of steam, adds Mr. Lukic.
And it is precisely this sector that would aim at the secondary customs duties mentioned by Trump, which could impose prices up to 100 % on the countries continuing to buy Russian oil, such as China, India, Turkey or Brazil.
“These countries taxed by the United States, especially China, could then push Russia to accept a cease-fire. It is a completely possible scenario, “said the teacher of international relations in the Department of History of Laval University.
But, there is always one but, “it would have very significant diplomatic consequences and the pressure would not be so much on Russia, but rather on the countries […] Who take advantage of an oil boon, “said the holder of the Ukrainian Chair of Studies at the University of Ottawa.
Rare weapons important for Ukraine
Another option to conclude the war, or at least strengthen the position of Ukraine, is to provide him with defensive weapons, says Dominique Arel.
Since Trump’s return in January, military aid has continued, but only because the budget had been adopted last year under the Biden administration. Deliveries were made to the rhythm of stocks exhaustion.
“Ukrainians have the capacity to stop cruising missiles, but not ballistics. And the American defense system Patriot is the only system that can intercept them, ”points out Mr. Arel.
Ukraine feared the intentions of the President of the United States, especially since in 2024, he qualified Putin as “rather intelligent” to have invaded them. He had also suspended certain deliveries of air defense missiles in order to preserve American stocks.
Against all expectations, Trump decided to resume armaments to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. The United States will provide arms, but its funding will be provided by European NATO members.
Washington even went so far as to delay the order of five patriots by Switzerland in order to send them priority to Ukraine, underlines Mr. Arel.
“This is a decision that even Biden had never made. He had not favored Ukraine in the command priority. […] It is a new capital for the Ukrainians, ”he adds.
The change of tone of Donald Trump against Russia is not to be underestimated, decides the professor at the University of Ottawa.
“Trump’s fascination with Putin has always been a mystery. But there, suddenly, that the American president went in this direction, it is something. It changes the game, ”he says.
Russia no longer has many playing cards, drops Reneo Lukic. And with Donald Trump, if you have nothing more to offer in exchange, you are no longer in his good graces. An offensive armament by Trump could push Moscow at the foot of the wall.
But in the opinion of Dominique Arel, this war is unfortunately not about to be finished. Since the start of hostilities on February 24, 2022, more than a million people have lost their lives.