France | A high -risk budget for François Bayrou

Gel of retirement pensions, health savings, suppression of two holidays … The Prime Minister of the Fragile French Government, François Bayrou, presented his budgetary plan on Tuesday against the “deadly danger” of debt. His announcements were rejected by the opposition. Are his days counted? The analysis of Olivier IHL, professor of political science at the University of Grenoble.

How far does François Bayrou play his shirt with the budget plan presented on Tuesday?

François Bayrou has played his shirt since he was appointed Prime Minister (December 2024) because he has no majority in the Assembly. So it is enough that the left gathered (France rebellious with the socialists in the first place) and the national rally vote against him, and he died politically. As this budget is a major political act, the tension will be maximum. But he still has time. For the moment, he announces his program. This is only the first round. At best, the vote of this budget will not be done until October. It leaves time for negotiations.

What to expect on this side?

We know one thing is that you have to reduce the wing. Because we cannot defend the principle of having even more deficits in France. Bayrou has set the bar very high, targeting 44 billion euros in savings. Except that not everyone agrees on solutions. Some believe that it is necessary to limit public spending, others that it is necessary to raise taxes, and others think that it is foreigners who have to pay the note with a national or nationalist policy. So there is grain to grind. For the moment, it is clear that some of these measures are test balloons.

Bayrou speaks of increasing military spending, making radical health cuts, freezing pensions and canceling two holidays (Easter Monday and May 8 commemorating the end of the Second World War). This last point, in particular, causes a lot of ink to flow …

In terms of political strategy, public holidays are often the scarecrow that scares birds. But it is not the most important, by far. Basically, the two days could concern something like 4 billion savings. It’s not nothing [mais] It is less than 10 % of the case. But everyone talks about it because it’s very symbolic and it affects everyone. It is a bit like the tree that hides the forest, if you want. It’s a lot of buzz. But it may end in the forgetting of negotiation. There are more issues on the issue of pensions, considering that retirees represent 40 % of the electoral body.

What do you plan for the start of the school year, when the budget is presented?

There will necessarily be a censorship motion deposited by rebellious France (radical left) and voted by the RN (extreme right). So it is with the Socialist Party (PS) that the survival of the government will be played. They will make it happen or not. The PS could decide to refrain from voting the motion of censorship, as it did during the previous budget (January 2025). If the socialists do not vote, there is no majority against. If, in the negotiations, Bayrou drops a little and agrees to give in on certain points which are dear to the PS, like pensions, it can do it. But behind all this, in my opinion, the question is whether we are going towards an early presidential election or not.

What do you mean ?

That there are two possibilities. If the budget is rejected, that there is a censorship motion that drops the government, the head of state can either appoint a new Prime Minister with the same majority, without dissolving the Assembly – but we have seen how difficult it is -, or trigger and trigger new legislative elections. But then we would perhaps end up with the same political forces in the National Assembly. The pressure on Macron will then be so strong that we may ask him to resign … and there is everything to think that he would. Which would lead us to an early presidential election since in principle this election is not planned before 2027.

Who would this scenario take advantage of?

It is necessary that everyone has their strength by saying: What do I earn in the operation? The Socialist Party and the Les Républicains Party (LR) have no interest in an early presidential election for the moment. Insoumise France and the national rally are in better position. This is why they are so anxious to interrupt the adventure of François Bayrou. There is also Édouard Philippe [ancien premier ministre, successeur annoncé de Macron au centre]. It is the only one, moreover, which is already completely declared as a candidate. This is why he is the most critical of the Bayrou budget. Not only does he believe in this possibility, but he counts on it …