While discussions for a ceasefire and an agreement on hostages in Gaza seem to have failed, Israel is now forced to rethink its strategy. The hypothesis of a military withdrawal against the release of the 50 hostages still held by Hamas was mentioned, but without concrete advance at this stage.
On the ground, the Israeli army concluded its last offensive, marked by the defeat of three brigades in Hamas in the south of Gaza, in Rafah and Khan Younès, as well as a fourth in the North. Two terrorist brigades remain active in the center and north of the Gaza Strip, especially in the city of Gaza and the neighboring refugee camps, areas where TSAhal estimates that there are still hostages, alive or dead. More than 1.5 million civilians live in this densely populated region.
Within the coalition of Benjamin Netanyahu, some plead for a total offensive in these areas, even at the risk of human losses among hostages, in order to definitively neutralize the governance capacities of Hamas. The chief of staff Eyal Zamir offers an alternative strategy based on targeted strikes and a reinforced blockade, with the objective of gradually weakening the terrorist group. This plan, although less decisive on the military level, aims to avoid an end of a precipitated war while maintaining the pressure on Hamas.
The Israeli army has also reduced its workforce to Gaza to their lowest level from the last ceasefire, in order to allow its troops to rest and prepare for a possible next phase.
On the diplomatic level, Jerusalem and Washington display a common line: no partial agreement will be accepted. Any solution will have to include the release of all hostages, the disarmament of Hamas and the total demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.
If this offer were to be rejected by Hamas, Israel hopes to obtain reinforced international support to resume the fighting, this time with increased legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.