For decades, the food industry has been preparing to feed a overcrowded planet, but its greatest challenge may well be that of a population not as large as expected.
Climate change today constitutes the most pressing threat to the agrifood sector. From farmers to carriers, all must adapt to extreme conditions: droughts, floods, fires, deregulated culture seasons. Each link in the supply chain sees its resilience put to the test.
But another threat, slower and more insidious, emerges: depopulation.
The food industry is based on a simple logic: an increasing population leads to increased demand in food, diversity and value. This postulate guided sector strategies for decades. But what happens when this consumer base begins to decrease?
More than 60 countries are already experiencing a demographic decline, according to the UN, a figure that will double in the next 25 years. Japan, Italy, South Korea, Bulgaria and others see their population drop from year to year, according to the OECD. Decrease in birth rate, aging of the population, shortages of labor and tax pressures redraw the global economy.
Even Canada will not be able to escape this trend eternally. Migration policies are evolving, and the growth of the world’s population slows down, or even reversed in several regions.
For a long time, the world has feared overcrowding and its effects on food security. Today, the reality is reversed: how to maintain a robust agrifood system with fewer consumers and fewer workers?
Until now, global hunger has been less linked to a shortage of foods than to distribution problems. The fear of lacking food was more from politics than agriculture. From now on, the key question becomes: how to preserve an innovative food economy when the demand is shaped?
The Canadian case illustrates this paradox well. If our population is still increasing, it is thanks to immigration, according to Statistics Canada. Our fertility rate continues to fall. Behind public debates on food prices and accessibility, a deeper issue is installed: nutritional insecurity.
In 2024, one in eight Canadian household lived in food insecurity, according to a study by the University of Toronto, a figure probably underestimated. This phenomenon is not limited to hunger: it implies insufficient access to healthy foods, poor nutritional quality and major health consequences.
An often ignored problem in this context is malnutrition linked to the disease. It affects all age groups and is strongly correlated with food insecurity and chronic diseases. The Canadian Malnutrition Working Group believes that a three in three Canadian children, and up to one in two hospitalized adults, is already poorly nourished. The disease aggravates malnutrition, which itself weakens health, creating an expensive and dangerous vicious circle.
This challenge will intensify with the aging of the population and the rise of chronic diseases. It is no longer just a question of nourishing the population, but of offering them a diet that prevents and supports health care.
Malnutrition is now a systemic problem that illustrates the limits of our way of thinking about food.
What does all this mean for the agrifood sector?
The market becomes more and more heterogeneous. The “one size” approach will no longer work. Growth will go through innovation, specialization and an offer adapted to the nutritional needs of consumers. It will be necessary to offer fewer calories, but of better quality.
Public policies will also have to evolve. Emphasis on accessibility and affordability must expand to nutritional safety-that is, guarantee constant access to foods that support health and prevent diseases. It is not a change in vocabulary, but a paradigm shift.
We have to go from a growth -centered model to a model based on resilience, quality and health. This transition will not be simple, but it is necessary. Otherwise, we risk maintaining an inadequate food system in the face of emerging demographic and nutritional realities.
The future of food will no longer be measured only in tons, but in well-being per person.