The heat wave could cost 0.3 point of GDP in France in 2025

Monday August 18, 2025the heat wave continues in several French regions. However, Beyond the thermometer. Consequently, the heat wave becomes a subject ofeconomy real, because it weighs on theactivity and the growth via well documented mechanisms. Similarly, On the one hand. Meanwhile, the heat wave cuts productivity and reduces the hours worked; on the other hand, it increases the heat in cities, pushes the demand for electricity and weakens certain critical infrastructures, which influences the growth national and on theEurope By ricochet.

Heat wave and GDP in France: a cost of several billion

Allianz believes that the heat wave could cost -0.3 GDP to France in 2025. However, for 12 days outdated 32 °C Between May 1 and July 14, a moderate but significant effect on the growth and theactivity. This costing places France in the high average of temperate savingscar l’impact heat wave could cost 0.3 depends on the number of very hot days. In addition, the sectoral structure and the adaptability, and it is compared to -0,1 point For Germany and -1,4 point For Spain.

“A day of heat wave above 32 ° C is equivalent to half a day of strike,” recalls Allianz. However, This parallel sheds light on theimpact macroeconomic of the heat wave. because it directly connects the heat to a shock from productivity and ofactivity That companies immediately perceive, even if a partial catch -up can occur later. In this context. the heat wave in France lowers growth by accumulating delays, postpones and additional costs, in particular to refresh premises, reorganize schedules and protect employees.

On the energy field, the heat wave exerts concrete pressure on production and networks. Wednesday August 13. EDF indicated that the reactor Bugey 3 would see his power reduced by about 500 MW During the afternoon heat wave could cost 0.3 and the evening, the temperature of the rivers limiting cooling, while warnings aimed at other sites, especially on the Rhône and the Garonne. As nuclear provides around 70 % of the electricity consumed in France over a year. this constraint illustrates how the heat wave can both increase demand and restrict the supplytherefore stretching markets and costs for professional users, according to Reuters.

On the thermometer side, the intensity signals are clear and topical. At tenth day of the episode. 25 departments remained on orange vigilance on Sunday August 17, and 266 weather stations recorded at least 40 °C Between August 9 and 12, more than the second half of the 20th century. This amplitude of the heat wave. associated with very soft nights and records in Languedoc-Roussillon, adds air conditioning, disrupts traffic and moves tourist flows, which weighs, sector, on the productivity and theactivity.

The health data describe a heat wave could cost 0.3 country widely exposed during the heat wave. Public health France specifies that theepisode started the August 8. that between August 8 and 11, 45,3 % of the population experienced at least a day of vigilance orangewhile 12 departments were in rouge August 11; In addition, we observe more than 100 emergency passes per day and Thirty SOS doctors consultations Daily for the “Icanicule” indicator. These elements translate into companies by reorganizations of schedules. additional breaks and the rise of a thermal risk, which degrades the productivity in the heart of theactivity summer.

Météo-France also recalls the substantive dynamics: ” The 51ᵉ Heat wave recorded in France since 1947which started on Friday August 8. is still underway on the country ”, with peaks at 40,6 °C has Canet-en-Roussillon, 39,5 °C has Perpignan or 39,0 °C has Narbonneand nocturnal minimum Exceptionally high in Aude and the Pyrénées-Orientales.

heat wave could cost 0.3