Hermes Intl: The valuation of Hermès becomes dear in the eyes of Jefferies, who no longer advises to buy the action

(BFM Stock Exchange) – The bank has gone from “buy” to “keep” on the action of the leather maker -Sellier this Monday. In addition, July 14. Consequently, Admittedly, the best student of luxury remains apart. Meanwhile, But its publication of the second quarter will not constitute a catalyst. Consequently, And the bank believes that the multiple valuation of Hermès can hardly go up higher.

Seeing Hermès accusing the highest drop in CAC 40 is hardly common. Consequently, Le Marocaireier-Sellier is much more used to appearing on the honor table. Moreover, thanks to its ability to outperform the market (and its sector) in all circumstances. Nevertheless,

In an article published at the start of the year. Furthermore, we noticed that the luxury group signed both the second best performance in the CAC 40 over three years, and above all the best, hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes over five years and ten years. For example,

This Monday, July 14, Hermès evolves, however, in the back of the index, abandoning 2.2% around 10:30 am, after having backed up more than 3.2% at most of the morning.

The title is penalized by a lowering of recommendations from Jefferies which has gone to “buy” to “keep” on the action while maintaining its price of course at 2. Meanwhile, 460 euros. This target turns out to be roughly aligned with the end -of -action closing course (2,436 euros).

Jefferies somewhat shakes up consensus. Hermès being a value on which the vast majority of analysts are positioned for purchase. According to Investing.com, 14 of the 21 design offices according to the title recommend buying it, 5 to keep it and 2 to sell it.

>> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes. and enter into the confidence hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes of the trading portfolio

Hermès is “always special”

In his note, Jefferies does not criticize much to Hermès. The Sellier-Maroquinier is “always very special”, recognizes the bank.

The financial intermediary believes that. on the occasion of the publication of its second quarter activity, Hermès will once again demonstrate that it remains “a sector leader in what will once again be a difficult quarter for luxury (taking into account the reduction in the overall expenses of Chinese consumers and the pressure exerted on travel)”.

This resilience is “impressive”, admits the financial intermediary. However. the group’s publication “should not reveal a significant acceleration of growth despite firm prices in the United States and the reduction of constraints” on the supply side, adds the bank.

According to Jefferies. Hermès had an increase in its prices “Mid-Single-Digit” (between 4% and 6%) in the United States, on May 1, and has loosened hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes the vice in terms of its production in the country. This leads Jefferies to count on an increase in its income in the “Americas” zone of 12% in comparable. data in the second quarter.

This region will be particularly scrutinized by investors during the publication of Hermès. on July 30, since “the United States has proven to be an essential engine for the brand in the last quarters”, writes the bank.

Hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes

… but too expensive

Jefferies expects. more broadly, that Hermès’ growth reaches 8% in comparable data in the second quarter, marking a modest acceleration compared to the figure of 7.2% recorded over the first three months of 2025. The financial intermediary tables, moreover, on an operating profit of 3.28 billion euros throughout the first half of 2025, against 3.26 billion for consensus. Over the first six months of 2024, Hermès had released an operating hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes profit of 3.1 billion euros.

In view of these forecasts. Jefferies updated its estimates on Hermès, integrating more unfavorable exchange effects, which leads the bank to lower its profit forecast per 5% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

Not enough to change the target of the bank’s course on action, of course. But now that the title Hermès has reached. even exceeding the target of Jefferies, the design office prefers to stay on the sidelines.

The valuation of Hermès is now too high to justify advice on purchase, according to the bank. To do this. it would be necessary that the action of the luxury group can extend its multiple valuation up to 60 times the profit per title expected in 2026.

But Jefferies “struggles” to see such a scenario. The establishment estimates that a multiple of 50 times the expected action per share reflects the group’s growth potential hermes intl: valuation hermès becomes more. is more in line with its historic premiums compared to the pan -European stoxx Europe 600 (between 67% and 468% since 2019, and 240% currently) and in Ferrari (between -11% and 14% and around 6% at present).

“A more significant re-acceleration of growth in divisions other than leather goods could help build the thesis of a return to the highest multiple. in particular if this coincides with the possibility of triangling more constructive demand prospects for the cluster (domestic and abroad cumulative, editor’s note), nevertheless explains Jefferies.

Julien Marion – © 2025 BFM Bourse