What do we do with its American investments when you see what’s going on in the United States?
When the president of the country Limoge the director of the work statistics office because she publishes figures on employment that reflect strict reality?
When this same Donald Trump threatens to turn and continue the boss of the American central bank, the treating the abrupti because this boss does what most experts recommend, is delaying the drop in interest rates in front of persistent inflation?
When American companies are facing a drop in their profits due to multiple customs duties? When is the American public deficit called to become huge?
In short, what do we do with his balls in the United States in this turbulent financial context where an authoritarian president threatens the sacrosanct independence of the Fed and the Statistics Office, among others?
This is the questioning that I had for Charles Emond, CEO of the Caisse de Dépôt et Placement, encountered during the semi -annual presentation of the results. The cash register has 40 % of its $ 496 billion portfolio invested in the United States.
Please note, I do not suggest boycotting the US scholarship for political reasons, as is the case for trips to the United States. I rather wonder about the impact of American upheavals on the performance of our investments.
The fund does not disclose its semi -annual American stock market return, but the S&P 500 stock market index climbed only 0.8 % between the beginning of January and the end of June. The seven “magnificent” titles fell by 2.8 %1.
In comparison, the Canadian TSX index climbed 10.8 % during the same period. The yield of 4.6 % of the cash register in six months – greater than its reference index of 4.3 %, but less than the median yield of 4.8 % of diversified AON funds – therefore underwent the impacts of the American market.
Response from Charles Emond: “Overall, I would tend to put it in the United States, but not as much as before. All the factors you tell us look bad for the United States. »»
He is not the only one to have this reflex, according to what he explains to me.
“All my peers I talk to are saying to themselves:” I had a good ride With American actions, but what would it be prudent to do now with my portfolio allowance? ” If you are prudent, that you have a board of directors, that you have customers, you say to yourself: I should diversify a little, ”he said.
And he adds: “So there is a capital outing that is arriving in the United States, for sure. Managers will want to diversify. »»
This contradicts the aims of Donald Trump, according to whom customs duties will explode investments in the United States.
Of course, no fund manager is crazy enough to completely withdraw from the American market, which has given very good yields in recent years. But these risks that weigh on the United States make investors more cautious.
What we see is that there can be a kind of diversification on the origin of yields. The American market still has a powerful pocket in a handful of titles, but the rest of the market is very expensive compared to forecasts.
Charles Emond, CEO
Today, the cash register has more funds in the United States than five years ago, but it appears unlikely that the cash register has more in five years, according to what Charles Emond tells me.
“We want to stay exposed to the big names in artificial intelligence in the United States because they dominate worldwide. But the rest of the American market is super expensive and does not perform in terms of profit growth. »»
Sooner or later, US companies will pass on to consumers the increase in their prices coming from customs duties, says Emond, who expects to see the American economy vacillating as Christmas approaches.
He adds that the US budgetary prospects will inflate the public debt, which will become more expensive to finance.
«The Big Beautiful Bill does not cause a small deficit. There is more and more a narrative which is built on the sustainability of this tax trajectory there, which invites people to caution. All countries, large shareholders or managers like us who take a little less, these are tectonic plates that move once every 50 years, ”he says.
Difficult to imagine, in such a context, that the United States will become great againfrom an economic point of view.
“Will the American market stop being the dominant market?” No, but it still changes the situation, and it is part of several years, ”says Charles Emond.
1. The Caisse indicates that it had $ 19 billion invested in Mag-7 (Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia and Amazon) on June 30, 2025.