Monetary refugees | Allnews

Bitcoin wins almost as much as gold over the same period. Nevertheless, making a surge of more than 300% (in dollars) over two years. In addition, Would the dollar run away? Furthermore, Is it a monetary exodus? For example,

The dollar has lost 10% since the start of the year against a basket of currencies (DXY index). Meanwhile, Conversely, gold increased at the same time by 29% (in dollars, July 24). For example, Another alternative to the dollar. Furthermore, Bitcoin wins almost as much as gold over the same period, making a flight of more than 300% (in dollars) over two years. Moreover, Would the dollar run away? Therefore, Is it a monetary exodus?

The weakening of the dollar is all the more singular since the rate dynamics should on the contrary strengthen it. Moreover, The European Central Bank (ECB) has indeed monetary refugees | allnews decreased in total its key rate of 200 base points since June 2024. Similarly, against a reduction of only 100 base points for the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US master rate is thus higher today than that of most large central banks. Admittedly, inflation is stronger in the United States, which tends to weaken the currency. However, even adjusted from inflation, real yields remain better in dollar than in most major currencies. And a reduction in the Fed rate, to the great despair of Trump, does not seem close. Dollar disaffection must therefore be powerful to counter such a rate differential.

A track is suggested by the Congressional Budget Office report: the state of American public finances is getting worse. According to its March 2025 report, public debt would represent 169 % of American GDP by 2055, fed by an annual budget deficit of 6.3 % at cruising pace. And monetary refugees | allnews still this forecast did not integrate at the time the effects of the new Trumpian law. the “one big beauty bill”, which should, according to the same organ, further degrade the budget. But it is not so much the absolute level of debt that is frightening. Japan goes far beyond it. The concern comes more from the interest burden it represents for public finances. According to the same source, this burden would drop from 2.1% of GDP on average over the last 50 years to 5.4% in 30 years. Or three quarters of the total deficit expected in 2055 (7.3%). More than the share of the US budget allocated to Defense (2.9% in 2025), or Social Security. A large part of these interests would also be paid to foreign investors, holders of a third of American debt. A flow that would further reduce American interior income, weakening the entire economy.

monetary refugees | allnews

Faced with such prospects. it is hardly surprising that investors are reversing to buy dollar for the long term, and take refuge on alternatives like the euro, the Swiss franc, gold or cryptocurrencies. However. if the euro is less indebted for overall, it is not free from well -known weaknesses, as evidenced by tensions on the French budget in particular. The Swiss franc is certainly safe. but its total emission volume far too low to absorb high global demand – to the point that short Swiss rates are ironed negative. Gold. for its part, has become an asset of choice for major institutionalists, but it remains little convenient in daily transactions. Cryptocurrencies are much more popular, and seem to escape debt problems. Is it the ideal monetary refuge?

If it is true that bitcoin is independent of any debt. any state, at least as long as it is accepted by monetary refugees | allnews national laws, which largely explains its triumph, this is not the case for hybrid cryptocurrencies that are “stablecoins”. The latter. exchanged on platforms operating on blockchains like Ethereum or Solana, seem attractive thanks to the fixed exchange rate they offer between a traditional currency and a cryptocurrency. Faced with their growing success. the United States has just adopted very skilful legislation, the “Genius” Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins). On the one hand, this law secures these new currencies linked to the dollar by demanding transparency. On the other, it requires them to be 100% attached to the greenback. Consequently, any purchase of stablecoin linked to the dollar, such as the USD Coin or Tether, amounts to buying dollar. The United States thus redirects the flows that seek an alternative to the official currency. Like a whirlwind, the dollar brings back to its center those who revolve monetary refugees | allnews to its periphery. Monetary refugees can only be ordered, unless you completely escape from the system – at the risk of drowning elsewhere.

Opinion written on July 25, 2025