This is a first since the end of the Second World War: the number of deaths recorded has exceeded that of births over a slippery year, alerts, in a post X, the economist François Geerolf, of the French observatory of economic conditions, based on the data of INSEE. From June 1, 2024 to May 31, 2025, the number of births recorded amounted to 650,400, while the number of deaths was 651,200. No “demographic rearmament” in sight, as, as Emmanuel Macron had claimed in 2024.
\ UD83D \ UDCC9 For the first time since the 2nd World War, France has more death (651,200) than births (650,400) in 12 months.
\ U27A1 \ ufe0f The natural balance is ** negative **.
And yet … no one talks about it. \ ud83e \ udd37 \ u2642 \ ufe0f https://t.co/bq2h9do3dspic.twitter.com/d8Cghi5kaX– François Geerolf (@Francoisgeerolf) July 18, 2025
” Expected “
Even if it is more usual to monitor the natural balance, that is to say the number of births in relation to the number of deaths in a calendar year, such an observation was “expected”, affirms Gilles Pison, demographer and advisor of the Directorate at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED). “We know that the natural balance has been declining for almost fifteen years,” he explains. And to recall that in 2019, it was positive and 140,000, against 17,000 in 2024. On the last figures of the INSEE noted by François Geerolf, “this suggests that a negative balance from 2025 is possible. We will have to wait until the end of the year to be sure, ”continues the researcher. In a study by the INED published in March, he had projected this shift for the year 2027.
1.62 children per woman
Behind these figures, Gilles Pison points, in particular, the increase in the number of deaths. A phenomenon that has nothing to do with the rise in mortality or the decline in life expectancy – which has been increasing for several years, but with the increase in the number of elderly baby boomers. “These people born between 1946 and the early 1970s approached the high ages where deaths are concentrated,” said the demographer.
He also underlines the drop in fertility, which accentuates the gap between the number of births and the number of deaths. “In 2010, the business indicator of fertility amounted to 2.02 children per woman, according to INSEE. In 2024, it was set at 1.62, and should further drop in 2025, “said Gilles Pison. He explains this drop in births by the fact that young adults want fewer children than 20 years ago, especially for economic reasons, but also for reasons related to ecological concern.
France follows the European trend
With these new figures, “France only joins most of the countries of the European Union”, according to the demographer. In recent years, France has indeed been one of the only ones on a positive natural balance. Of all twenty-seven, the number of deaths amounted to around five million, while the number of births was just under four million. “But that does not mean that the population in Europe has dropped,” said Gilles Pison. The negative natural balance in the EU is notably compensated by the positive migratory balance, particularly on the 1920s and 2023 with the arrival of Ukrainian refugees.
In Brittany, births have been down for several years, with a negative natural balance for ten years now. A trend largely linked to the aging of the population: one in four residents in the region is over 65 years old.