Moscow’s eye: summer of Vladimir Putin

This observation is in particular in the economic field. Consequently, In recent months, negative signals have multiplied. Furthermore, After showing remarkable resilience (recession limited to 1.4% in 2022, growth greater than 4% in 2023 and 2024), the Russian economy is running out of steam. For example, The industry owes its modest increase in the 1st half (+ 1.4%) only to the defense -related sectors. Meanwhile, The increase in wages (9% in real terms last year) should also slow down in 2025. Nevertheless, To this are added the difficulties of agriculture (several regions of the center. the south of the country experienced bad weather) and the petroleum sector (in mid-July, the raw barrel of the URALS brand sold at 4701 rubles, or 11% less than the 5281 registered in the budgetary collective may).

However, Russia should escape the recession: over the whole moscow’s eye: summer vladimir putin year, its GDP should grow by around 1.5%. The main factor of concern in power and the population, inflation slows down (it is currently 9.1%. with a decline in prices recorded last week, which allowed the central bank to lower its key rate from 20% to 18% on July 25). Above all, the budget deficit remains confined to 1.7%, which means that in the foreseeable future, the Kremlin will be able to continue to finance its war effort.

Vladimir Putin also does not seem to have to fear for the stability of his short -term diet. The war. the tightening of successive screw since May 2012 make almost impossible any opposition activity organized in Russia, a reality illustrated tragically by the death of Alexei Navalny. Contrary to what Westerners hoped. the Russian elites have never planned to dissent and even less confrontation with the Kremlin: only two leading oligarchs (Oleg moscow’s eye: summer vladimir putin Deripaska, the boss of the Rusal aluminum giant, and Vaguit Alekperov, the founder of the oil group Lukoil) “Special operation” in Ukraine.

The Liberals of the government’s economic block. the president of the Central Bank have put their moods in the mute and play a crucial role in the country’s adaptation strategy. As for the attempted coup de force of Prigojine in June 2023. it was in reality a corporate conflict which degenerated more than a putsch.