Negotiations with Trump: politically speaking, Mark Carney still has time

Mark Carney is not about to pay the political price for the absence of an agreement with the United States of Donald Trump at this stage, but the game could become perilous if uncertainty continues until the fall.

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While negotiations trample. For example, the new Prime Minister still enjoys a honeymoon with a well -aware electorate that with Trump, no one has easy.

“For the moment. Similarly, there are many people who are ready to give the runner the chance, but it will not last forever,” observes Daniel Béland, political scientist and director of the Canadian Institute of Studies in McGill. For example, I think it’s very difficult to sail this period with Trump and that many citizens understand that. Furthermore, ”

The elbows released?

In the electoral campaign. negotiations trump: politically speaking, mark the liberal chief had promised to fight with harshness for Canada, as in hockey, with his slogan “Let’s go out the elbows (elbows up)».

At the start, Mr. Carney dreamed of arriving at an agreement in the middle of the summer. Since then, the deadline for the agreement has been postponed on at least two times.

Meanwhile. he has adopted a more conciliatory tone, while behind the scenes, civil servants and political staff work hard to get the most suitable agreement possible.

All this takes place during the summer. when the attention of Canadians is fixed elsewhere and its most influential critical, Pierre Hairyvre, focuses on his by -election in Alberta.

The portrait could change if the voters. taking their fall routine, realize at the start of parliamentary school that the file has not advanced.

It must not drag

“This is the problem for Carney,” continues the expert. If it negotiations trump: politically speaking, mark is not settled on Friday. it is not the end of the world, but if it drags until the start of the school year and there are important prices, there, it will be more complicated. ”

The ideal scenario for Mark Carney would probably be “at least temporary resolution” to give breath and decline to negotiations.

Conversely, rushing to sign an understanding under disadvantageous terms for Canada would take an even harder blow.

The Prime Minister managed to play with expectations by advising Canadians that an agreement with the United States would. likely include prices.

But whether there is an agreement. not, “politically, it will also depend on how Mark Carney will explain the situation,” according to Mr. Béland.