In Nouvelle-Aquitaine, the start of the year had the bitterness of too tight coffee. The figures published by INSEE announce the color: the activity is sagging, the employment patina and even tourism, usually pillar of the region, accuses it. As a result, the local economic dynamic is closer to an engine in a standstill than an expanding region.
The contrast is all the more striking since the euro zone seemed to give some signs of recovery. While world trade resumed a little momentum, France remained stuck on the ground, with national growth expected at only +0.6 % in 2025. New Aquitaine, it is even under this trend.
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New Aquitaine in the national trend in the first quarter of 2025
The figure is simple: in the first quarter of 2025, regional activity fell from 0,8 % Compared to last year, a notch more than the French average which caps at -0.6 %. Household savings climbed to levels never reached for 45 years, and consumption, the usual engine of growth, remains at the dry diet.
All sectors toast, from construction to the tertiary sector. This homogeneity in the withdrawal gives a fairly dark picture: no “locomotive” sector capable of drawing the region, with the exception of a few industrial niches which save the face.
Construction in the wall
For several quarters already, the building sector has lost its foundations. At the start of the year, the fall accelerates with a decline in -2,6 % over a year. The housing sites start less: -4.6 %, including -6.2 % for the collective. It’s simple, more than a thousand salaried jobs have vanished in three months.
Business creations do not straighten the bar. They fell 2.9 %, proof that appetite to get into this sector decreases. The cranes that once punched the sky of Bordeaux or Poitiers mark a disturbing break.
Industry, between bursts and folds
One might think that the regional industry, often highlighted for its dynamism in aeronautics or energies, would resist. However, she too cashes: -0,7 % activity over a year, the strongest decline in four years.
Not everything is black. The manufacture of transport equipment earns 2.2 % and energy management is advancing 1.3 %. Pockets of resistance exist, but they do not compensate for ambient gloom. Business creations plunged 4.1 %, well below the national average already poorly oriented.
A tertiary man who loses his jurisdiction
The tertiary represents the majority of regional jobs, and its withdrawal weighs heavy: -0.6 %. In detail, contrasts are marked.
- Commerce decreases by 1 %, even if employment still resists.
- Real estate takes a wall with -3.4 %.
- Information and communication lose 3.7 % and around 200 jobs.
- Only financial services (+1.1 %) and scientific activities manage to create a little job.
- Accommodation-restaurant remains stable, despite a 0.5 % drop in staff.
In short, the large sector of services is found out of breath, unable to compensate for the weaknesses of others.
Employment and unemployment: the fragile balance
Regional salaried employment fell slightly: -0.1 %, or 2,900 positions removed. In an ocean of bad news, some will reassure themselves by noting that the impact remains limited. The unemployment rate dates back to 6,6 %still below the national average fixed at 7.2 %.
This balance is due to hiring in the non -market sector, which partially compensate for the breakage in the building and the temporary worker. We could almost talk about status quo, if the trend did not give the impression of a fragile dike ready to give in.
Tourism and businesses: two broken down engines
Regional hotel attendance severely wins: -4 % In one year, twice as much as the national average. French nights are retreating, in particular for business trips: -11 %. In Bordeaux, the fall reached -15 %. Foreign tourism does not help anything, with a collapse of British (-56 %) and Spanish (-26 %) clienteles. Only the Americans display an unexpected, almost doubled enthusiasm, but their weight remains minimal.
On the entrepreneurship side, the trend is not more delightful. Business creations drop in 1 %, and even micro-entrepreneurs, who had bounced at the end of 2024, run out of steam (-0.9 %). Industry and construction, already under pressure, are among the most affected.
Perspectives: a still foggy horizon
INSEE warns: the French economy will remain slow in 2025 with an expected increase of only 0.2 % per quarter. Unemployment should continue its slow rise. For New Aquitaine, the coming months promise to be decisive.
Traditional engines – consumption, construction, tourism – are seized. If resumed there is, it may come from the pockets of industrial resistance or innovation in financial and scientific services. In the meantime, the region is going through a period when the restart signals are rare, and when prudence is more than ever.
Source : https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8590017