After a scathing defeat in Arthabaska on Monday, the CAQ will now have to avoid a large scan in the next general elections. But the planned ministerial reshuffle will not be sufficient, say experts.
The worst scenarios was confirmed for Caquis troops on Monday evening, with a score of only 7% during the by -election in Arthabaska, far from the 52% collected in 2022.
Between the two elections, the Northvolt file, the Fiasco Saaqclic and the lack of access to public services have created discontent among voters, as François Legault himself recognized.
Quebec voters “are disappointed”, he admitted to his supporters.
On Tuesday, the Prime Minister went to meet citizens in a cheese dairy and a Quebec shopping center to hear their dissatisfactions and their expectations against the government, without the presence of the media. He intends to repeat the approach in the coming weeks.
It must be said that the time is serious for the CAQ. A projection carried out by the QC125 surveys attached between six and … zero sits last June.
Effective reshuffle?
But the tools to relaunch your mandate are limited, recognize two experts interviewed by our parliamentary office.
The vast reshuffle planned around the Labor Day is not a magic solution. “If François Legault remains, it will not change the face of the government,” notes Frédéric Boily, professor of political science at the University of Alberta.
In Ottawa, the formula worked only because Justin Trudeau himself gave way to Mark Carney, he underlines.
His colleague Jean-François Daoust is of the same opinion. The image of the CAQ is intimately linked to that of its chief, much more than in other parties with deeper roots.
“The fact that him personally is unpopular is a disaster for the CAQ,” said the deputy professor at the applied policy of the University of Sherbrooke.
Worse, a reshuffle could create disappointment among demoted ministers or among deputies who will remain on the rear benches.
The last thing François Legault needs is a new by -election, while the government is already facing its share of events in the coming weeks (see box).
Anti-sovereignist vote
For the two experts, the fear of a referendum on Quebec’s sovereignty remains the best card in the CAQ to go up in the polls.
“François Legault can hope for a return of this debate which could bring the voters to his autonomist option,” says Frédéric Boily.
Jean-François Daoust notes that the Prime Minister tries to return to the two themes that allowed him to take power in 2018: good management of the economy and a drop in immigration.
Of course, the balance sheet is halftone in economics, with a planned deficit of $ 14 billion this year. But the Caquist Prime Minister tries to “repair the broken pots”, with budgetary tightening and positions of posts in the public service.
Immigration
In immigration, despite the “loss of control” in recent years, the plan recently filed by Minister Jean-François Roberge provides draconian declines, underlines Jean-François Daoust.
François Legault can then say, in 2026, “if you do not interest you the independence of Quebec, we are a nationalist government with a robust plan,” observes the professor.
Several pitfalls for François Legault by 2026
- The vast planned reshuffle could make dissatisfied … and lead to other resignations of deputies.
- The Fiasco Saaqclic will remain in the news with the continuation of the public inquiry, the testimony of ministers like Geneviève Guilbault and François Bonnardel, as well as the submission of the report of the Gallant Commission. The UPAC also investigates in the file.
- The auditor general will submit an investigation report on the billions of dollars granted to the battery sector in the spring, which has already made the headlines with the failure of Northvolt.
- Difficult negotiations will continue with doctors to impose a reform of their remuneration, including penalties related to performance.
- Minister Maïté Blanchette Vézina will have to succeed in the big gap to adopt her reform of the forest regime, very badly welcomed by the various groups concerned, in addition to large industry.