The organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) has published a monthly report on August 12, in which it adjusts its world’s global gold consumption forecasts for the year 2026. This announcement, although moderate in its scale, constitutes an indication of the confidence found in the vigor of the global economic recovery.
Global economic growth boosts oil consumption forecast
In its latest report, the OPEC now projects a request of 106.5 million barrels per day (MB/D) in 2026, against 105.1 Mb/d in 2025. This forecast represents a bullish revision of 0.1 Mb/d compared to the data published the previous month. “” Global demand growth forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged at 1.3 Mb/d in annual shift, the same level as the assessment of last month “, Specifies the organization in its monthly report published on August 12, 2025 and in remarks reported by Bfmtv.
In 2026, the expected growth in demand was increased to 1.4 Mb/d, or 1.2 Mb/d for countries outside OECD, notably India and China, and 0.2 Mb/d for the OECD area. This dynamic is mainly based on a global economic context in improvement, reinforced by the appeasement of trade tensions, especially around American customs duties.
OPEC: Careful optimism in the face of a changing market
Behind this modest upward revision, OPEC analysis contrasts with another large -scale projection, that of the International Energy Agency (AIE). In its annual report Oil 2024, published on June 12, 2024, the AIE anticipates a structural imbalance in the oil markets by 2030, caused by an increasing excess offer. In its Oil 2024 report, the agency warns that global production capacity could reach 114 Mb/d by 2030, far exceeding the demand estimated at 106 Mb/d.
« This report shows a major offer to emerge this decade, suggesting that oil companies should adapt their strategies “Said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IAI on the iea.org site. The AIE believes that the demand of the advanced countries will continue to decline, falling under the 43 Mb/d in 2030, a level more seen since 1991. In parallel, the supply will be carried by producers outside OPEC+, in particular the United States, Brazil and Canada, which calls into question the traditional balance of the controlled market by OPEC. Unlike OPEC’s monthly report, which adjusts its short -term forecasts (especially for 2026), the AIE document analysis of medium -term structural trends, in particular the rise of electric vehicles, energy efficiency gains and the diversification of OPEC+supply.
Between cyclical recovery and energy transitions
The revival of activity provided by OPEC is based on an economic growth forecast of 3.0 % in 2025 and 3.1 % in 2026. This context requires relative geopolitical stability and a continuation of energy demand in transport, petrochemical and aviation. However, the long -term signals issued by international institutions call for a strategic revision.
Electric vehicles, the energy efficiency of thermal engines and the rise in biofuels gradually reduce the margins of growth in oil consumption. Hence the need for producing countries to diversify their economic models, under penalty of undergoing the effects of overcapacity.