The government coalition of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost the majority in the upper room of Parliament during elections on Sunday. The far-right anti-immigration party without Eeeito is experiencing a strong push.
While 125 of the 248 seats were renewed during the ballot, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD, Conservative right) of Shigeru Ishiba and its Komeito ally (Center right) gained only 41 seats, according to national media projections, including public NHK television, far from the 50 necessary to maintain their majority.
The anti-immigration populist party Sanseeito, with the slogan “Japan first”, made a very strong breakthrough, with between 16 seats won, according to a survey at the exit of the ballot boxes, while it only controls two in the current assembly. This training advocates “hardened rules and restrictions” in immigration, castigates “globalism”, denounces “radical” gender policies and calls for recondizing vaccination and decarbonation strategies.
Déity let Stevirus Ishiba?
Experts had estimated before the election that such a defeat of the government could force the resignation of Shigeru Ishiba, 68, in office for ten months. The government coalition is already in the minority in the lower room of the Parliament since a bitter setbacks during the anticipated legislative elections of the fall, which Shigeru Ishiba himself summoned after having taken the head of the PLD in September.
>> Reread: Historical setback of the ruling party in Japan, which loses its majority
“The situation is difficult. We have to examine it very humbly and seriously,” said the Prime Minister on Sunday evening. Asked about his future, he replied: “We can do nothing before we saw the final results, but I will be aware of my responsibility”.
Unpublished situation
“On the one hand, some consider that the trade negotiations still underway with the Trump admistation could offer him a stay. On the other, the Prime Minister himself had declared to aim for 50 seats: with a result below, it would probably be logical that he resigns,” analyzed the NHK the professor at Chuo Koji Nakakita University.
The PLD has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955, despite frequent changes in manager. Minority in the lower room, the PLD and Komeito had to compromise with the opposition to vote their texts. Japan could now enter “on unknown terrain, with a minority government in the two rooms of the Parliament, an unprecedented situation since the Second World War”, recalls Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University.
In the absence of an alternative coalition between fragmented and incompatible opposition parties, “the probable scenario could now be a great coalition between the PLD and the Constitutional Democratic Party” (center-left), the main opposition force, estimates Hidehiro Yamamoto.
Persistent inflation
Strong theme of the campaign, inflation remains strong (+3.3% in June excluding fresh products), driven by a vertiginous flambé of rice prices which have doubled in the space of a year.
>> Read on this subject: In Japan, the price of rice flies into an inflationary climate
To alleviate the inflationary impact, Shigeru Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended from energy grants and is committed to paying checks of 20,000 yen (120 dollars) per citizen. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.
Burry of talks on American customs duties
In addition, Donald Trump’s customs offensive plunged car sales to the United States by a quarter, a sector overlapping by Washington at 25% and which represents 8% of jobs in the archipelago. The threat of generalized surcharge of 25% on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.
While the Japanese negotiator went seven times to the United States, the talks with Washington bother. Before the election, Shigeru Ishiba had displayed a maximalist strategy consisting in claiming the total elimination of customs duties.
The financial markets are concerned, them, budgetary drifts, the massifs of recovery plans and aid from the Ishiba government aggravating already heavy debt. Several Tokyo bond emissions have been shunned in recent months, caught up the Japanese rates.
AFP/Asch/Vic