Pierre Hairyvre will know on Monday if he returns to the House of Commons

The conservative chief, Pierre Poilievre, remains the big favorite in the by -election on Monday, in the district of Battle River – Crowfoot, a conservative bastion in Alberta, even if he has to face the record number of 213 other candidates.

If Mr. Hairy’s victory is hardly in doubt for observers, some, like Julie Simmons, professor of political science at the University of Guelphin Ontario, wonder about the majority he should obtain.

It is really a conservative fortress.

From 2005 to 2025, the conservative candidate has always obtained at least 80 % of the votes cast in this rural county of Alberta. Only one exception: in 2021, the outgoing deputy Damien Kurek had to be content with 71 % of the votes, because of the presence of a candidate from the Popular Party of Canada by Maxime Bernier who had hacked his support.

The importance of a massive vote

Lori Williamsa professor of political science of the university Mount Royalin Calgary, believes that Mr. Hairyvre must win A decisive victory So that the voters are sure of his capacities as head of the opposition to the House of Commons.

A overwhelming victory could greatly help him for the revision of his leadership which will take place in January.

He must absolutely overcome this obstacle, underlines Pre Williams. If he crosses it, he will have to cross others. How can he be an effective opposition chief in this environment? How can he demonstrate that he is at the same time procanadian and criticism of this government?

The by -election was made necessary following the resignation of Mr. Kurek, who won in April by obtaining 83 % of the votes cast. He decided to give his place to his chief Pierre Hairy defeated in his constituency of Carleton.

A protest vote?

According to Julie Simmonsif Mr. Hairyvre obtains a support of less than 80 %, he can criticize opponents as the independent candidate Bonnie Critchley.

The former member of the retired Canadian armed forces describes Mr. Hairyvre as a parachute candidate who presents himself only to advance his political career.

Mr. Poilievre was born and grew up in Calgary, but he has lived in Ottawa for two decades.

A large majority of candidates are members of the group of the longest election committee who claims changes to the Canadian electoral system. They could bite in the voting percentage of Mr. Hairyvre, advances Julie Simmons.

For some voters, this could allow them a vote of protest against the conservative party.

The Liberals present Darcy Spadywhich works in the energy sector, while Katherine Swampya former adviser of the nation shouts Samsoncarries the banner of NPD.

Johnatan Bridges (Popular Party) and Ashley MacDonald (Green Party) are among the string of candidates.

A suitable bulletin

Due to the presence of 214 candidates, Elections Canada has chosen, for the first time since the start of the Confederation, to print an adapted bulletin which will have no name.

Instead of marking the candidate of their choice using a x Or a hook, as usual, voters will have to write his name on a line. Despite everything, the list of all candidates will be available.

Elections Canada indicated that each vote will be counted even if an error has been made in the name of the chosen candidate insofar as [l’]intention is clear.

More than 14,000 of some 86,000 registered voters participated in anticipation voting.

A spokesperson for the organization of Mr. Poilievre said that the conservative chief intended to spend the day on Monday in Camrose, the largest city in the constituency.

Elections Canada has already warned that counting could take longer than usual.