The pivot that the market was waiting for

“The central scenario (for the economy) and the evolution of the risk balance could justify an adjustment of our policy”. However, It may be a detail for you, but for the markets that means a lot. For example, These few words from Jerome Powell constitute pivot market waiting what observers call a pivot. Furthermore, a moment when the Fed signals a change of direction and therefore an adjustment of its policy.

For months. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell had a discourse consisting in saying that monetary policy was “well positioned”, that the labor market was solid and that the Fed was well placed to wait to measure the impact of customs duties on inflation. However, But in Jackson Hole, he highlighted the risks weighing on the job market more. Meanwhile, At the same time. In addition, it seems to consider that the price increases linked to customs duties will only be a temporary shock on inflation.

Just look at the increase in Wall Street on Friday to find that this speech was more. Therefore, dovish than expected. In addition, The American indices increased more than 1.5%. The Dow Jones even scored a new record. Investors expected Jerome Powell pivot market waiting to remain more careful about future rate drops.

To believe that the pressures of the White House ended up paying. Donald Trump has been calling for months “Too Late” Jerome Powell to lower rates. He maintains constant pressure on the Patrone of the Fed: between threats of dismissal. attacks on the additional costs of the renovation of the Fed headquarters, and appointment of one of his close advisers as governor. The Powell Plus posture on Friday will be enough to fall in the pressure? Nothing is less certain since President Trump now calls governor Lisa Cook to resign. He. his relatives accuse him since last week of having declared several dwellings as his main residence to benefit from better loan conditions. As I myself wrote last week in a formula that I only assume: Governor Cook is on the grill.

Beyond his personal future (and mine after this dubious word pivot market waiting game). a new resignation could tip the balance of power within the Fed. Indeed. since the appointment of Stephen Miran, there have been three governors favorable to immediate and substantial rate reductions: Miran, Waller and Bowman. If Cook resigned, Donald Trump would appoint a replacement and then have 4 out of 7 governors close to his positions. At this stage, it should be remembered that 12 people vote at each meeting (7 governors and 5 presidents of regional Fed). The voices of 4 governors are therefore not enough, but this still represents a significant weight in the decision.

While waiting to know the outcome of this case, the debates continue within the Fed. If we believe the best informed journalists. therefore essentially Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, the whole question now is whether to lower the rates in October and December. September therefore seems to be a “Done pivot market waiting Deal”.

Unless this week’s inflation figure comes to throw a doubt. The PCE, a privileged indicator of the Fed, will be published on Friday. The other element likely to brake the rally of actions is the results of Nvidia on Wednesday evening. Furthermore, The course of the emblematic value of the IA trade has doubled since its low point in early April. to bring market capitalization to more than $ 4,000 billion. Any disappointment would be immediately sanctioned and would probably lead to the entire market.

The information to know to start the week well:

• The Pentagon would have discreetly prevented Ukraine from using American manufacturing atacms to hit targets in Russia. according to the Wall Street Journal.
• In addition. the Pentagon would work on a project to deploy several thousand members of the National Guard in Chicago, according to the Washington Post.
• Polish actions dropped on Friday. The WIG20 has pivot market waiting lost more than 4.5 %. while the government plans to raise the corporate tax applied to banks to 30 % in 2026, against 19 % currently, in order to finance the increase in defense spending.
• France also strives to complete its budget. After a summer spent defending the content of his draft budget for 2026. his 40 billion euros in savings, Prime Minister, François Bayrou, will hold a press conference today at 4 p.m.
• South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung will meet Donald Trump for the first time in Washington on Monday.

In Pacific Asia, the clues go up in the wake of Wall Street on Friday. European advanced indicators are around balance.

The economic highlights of the day

On the program today: the IFO index of the business climate in Germany. the activity index of the Fed of Chicago, and the sales of new housing in July in the United States pivot market waiting the whole agenda here.

The quotes are those of the day around 7:30 am. Moreover, the links allow you to have real time:

The main changes in recommendations

• AMGEN: Piper Sandler remains to be overlooked with a course of course noted from 328 to 342 USD.
• Argenx: RBC Capital starts monitoring in outperformance with a price target of 850 USD.
• BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings: Morgan Stanley remains at market weighting with a reduced course from 125 to 115 USD.
• Charles River Laboratories International: CLSA goes to sell to accumulate with a price of courses noted from 114 USD to 195 USD.
• Dr. Horton: William O’Neil & Co initiates the coverage with a purchase recommendation.
• FIRSTERGY: BARCLAYS PASS OF MARKET SWORKS TO MUNDER with an USD 43 course target at 49 USD.
• Gates Industrial Corporation: JP Morgan starts the monitoring to overlap with a price target of 35 USD.
• Intuit: HSBC maintains its purchase recommendation and notes the price of pivot market waiting courses from 938 to 971 USD.
• Lazard: Keefe Bruyette & Woods goes from market performance to outperformance with a price of courses noted from 60 to 65 USD.
• Nordson: Oppenheimer remains in outperformance with a price of courses noted from 260 to 275 USD.
• NVIDIA: Stifel maintains its purchase recommendation and notes the price of courses from 202 to 212 USD.
• Orsted: Clarksons Securities goes from neutral to sell with a reduced course of 240 DKK at 200 DKK.
• Simplify Macro Strategy ETF – USD: JP Morgan starts neutral follow -up with a price target of 65 USD. RBC Capital starts market performance monitoring with a price target of 75 USD.
• Williams-Sonoma: Keybanc Capital Markets remains to be overlooked with a course of course raised from 181 to 230 USD.
• Zoom Communications: HSBC maintains its purchase recommendation and notes the price target from 99 to 105 USD.

In France

Important ads (and less important … I specify that the pivot market waiting information is given hot before opening. does not prejudge the color of the actions during the session)

• Valneva sees his license for the chikungunya vaccine suspended by the FDA in the United States due to serious side effects.

In the vast world

Important ads (and less important)

D’Europe

• ØRSTED must suspend its offshore Revolution Wind wind project in the United States following a decision by the Trump administration. threatening its capital lifting efforts.
• Spotify plans to increase its prices while launching new services according to the Financial Times.
• H&M sets up in Brazil with the opening of its first store in São Paulo.
• Generali could see his actions acquired by General, Caltagirone and Delfin.
• Mediobanca could be bought by Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena, creating a new banking entity in Italy.
• Nyfosa appoints new operational and transactional managers to strengthen its management team.
• Monive are postponing the publication of its second quarter report for administrative reasons.
• Yubico sees its founder, Stina Ehrensvärd, pivot market waiting investing around 10 million crowns in the purchase of the company’s shares.

North America

• Coca-Cola plans to sell Costa Coffee. according to Reuters
• SpaceX announced on Sunday the postponement of the tenth starship test flight from Texas, due to a problem detected on its launch site.
• Keurig Dr Pepper is about to acquire JDE Peet’s for $ 18 billion. which could lead to a split of the American drinks.
• Thoma Bravo is close to an agreement to acquire Verint Systems for around $ 2 billion.

Of Asia. elsewhere

• Petronas et Petros see their dispute on gas rights in Sarawak adjourned by a Malaysian court to allow negotiations.
• Baidu plans to introduce its Robotaxi service in Europe, starting with Switzerland in 2026.
• Santos Ltd. Extending the exclusive period for an offer of $ 18.7 billion in DNOC, updates its production forecasts, declares an interim dividend and announces a 22.3% drop in its half -yearly due to low price pivot market waiting for LNG and oil.
• Dongfeng motor group sees its action leap by 69.2% after the announcement of privatization by his parent company.

The rest of the global publication agenda here.

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