The conjunction – almost cosmic – of five major political events provokes an unprecedented situation, similar to the serious version of the concept of “Great Reset” tied up by some, which opens the door to renewed hopes for anyone who has interests in public affairs in Quebec.
We get used to it almost – or not -, but the Parti Québécois (PQ) remains very high in opinion polls; His opponents do not seem to be able to weaken him despite his status as fourth party in the National Assembly. In addition, we have just attended the election of the new leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ); His arrival already seems to have moved the needle of polls.
In addition to the ministerial reshuffle announced for the fall by the Prime Minister and Head of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Québec Solidaire (QS) must designate his male co-spokesperson shortly, a few months after having proceeded to the designation of his female co-range. Finally, a by -election will take place this summer in Arthabaska, and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) seems to have certain chances of winning.
Consequences
All this, put together, has several direct consequences. The most obvious is a gigantic set of musical chairs in ministerial offices, among opposition parties and in the high public service. Some ministers and spokesperson will change jobs; Some have already changed. Many appointments have already taken place and others are to be expected, especially on the administrative side. Uncertainty, but also the opening of new possibilities, is the lot of all political staff, government and opposition parties.
We will attend in the coming months the last two parliamentary sessions and the last budget of the current government; Every minute in Parliament and each sentence of the next budget will be important. We will also witness the launch of large policies and initiatives, detailed over several years, which will be as many implicit electoral commitments from the government party.
On the public administration side, we can expect the acceleration of projects that we want to close before the electoral period, then to a relative slowdown as the general election of October 2026 approaches. Political parties, which are not parliamentary or government entities, will begin to prepare for their electoral commitments, which will be as many projects to carry out for the new Council of Ministers emanating from the party winning next year.
Change
Through all of this, an essential element is a change in the content of political and government discourse, mainly for the 2026 election and accelerated by the partial of this summer. The way of decoding government communication and that of opposition parties must therefore adjust to take into account the desired support of the population and the management of their expectations.
We will also see a greater critical vigor of the opposition parties and greater caution in government declarations. Likewise, it is likely that the government will be more sensitive to public declarations targeting him, and the opposition parties, more quick to seize opportunities in this sense.
The different social, economic, professional and other groups, such as those that people in my profession represent, can also see this period as a great opportunity. An opportunity to innovate in certain files to allow releases. An opportunity to change things without it being a criticism. An opportunity to exist, positively, despite ambient cynicism. Moreover, paradoxically, the more cynicism with regard to the political system circulates, the more it benefits organizations that make the choice to intervene, by increasing the relative impact of their interventions and their objective influence.
The year 2025-2026, which will last approximately 15 months, will therefore be the year of all political hopes in Quebec. Great opportunities will present themselves, as much for people involved politically or in the government, as for actors external to the political system. A political “Great Reset”, which is hoped for positive for the population of Quebec, because the machine is already underway.
Mathieu Santerre
President, Blue Orange Public Affairs