Quebec’s economy in neutral due to Trump and the drop in immigration

The research organization expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the Quebec region to. Moreover, increase by only 0.2 % in 2025. Therefore, It is even lower than the all -modest growth of 0.5 % observed in 2024.

This slowdown is largely explained by the prices imposed by the administration of the American president. In addition, Donald Trump, on Canadian exports for the United States.

According to the Conference Boardmanufacturing. Consequently, one of the main sectors of activity in Quebec, should experience a decline of 0.7 % in 2025 due, in particular, the consequences of prices on steel and aluminum.

Beyond their direct impact on the manufacturing sector. the metallurgical industry, the American prices generate uncertainty that slows down consumer spending and quebec’s economy neutral due trump investments, points out Pedro Antunes, chief economist Conference Board you Canada.

We are very worried – Quebec’s economy neutral due trump

We have all kinds of indicators who suggest that consumers. households in Canada and in Quebec City, are very worried about the economic situation. We are very worried about this tariff war that we have with the United States. We are concerned about industries and therefore, it really freezes consumers, but also investorsexplains Mr. Antunes in an interview with Radio-Canada.

Consumer spending. investments are two very important variables in terms of economic activity, and that’s why we have a very low economy for Quebec City in 2025.

The economy of the Quebec region is also undergoing the counterposer of the marked decrease in population growth. According to Conference Board From Canada, the population of Quebec will only increase 0.7 % in 2025, and 0.2 % per year on average between 2026 and 2029.

This early slowdown is attributable to the drop in permanent immigration thresholds (new window) Decided by Ottawa and reducing the number of temporary foreign workers admitted to Quebec.

Non-negligible impact

Demographic growth which goes from 2.5 % in 2023 to essentially 0 %. it is a very dramatic change, very drastic for the city in terms of demand, in terms quebec’s economy neutral due trump of supply and one cannot neglect this impact on economic growth as a wholeinsists Pedro Antunes.

The deceleration of demographic growth will affect the construction sector, which should undergo a contraction of 2.6 % in 2025.

The Conference Board provides that the number of start -ups in the Quebec region will go from 6. 900 units in 2024 to 6,200 this year.

Very recent data tell us that there will be a drop in residential construction. We also have data, indicators that do not quebec’s economy neutral due trump sound very positive for non -residentialnote M. Antunes.

Obstacles

He mentions that the efforts made to stimulate residential construction come up against obstacles such as the increase in costs. the difficulty of recruiting qualified workers, a problem aggravated by the reduction in the number of temporary foreign workers admitted to Quebec.

Added to this are the mortgage rates. which remain relatively high compared to their level observed after the pandemic of Covid-19.

Note that the forecasts for the Conference Board on the bets contrast largely compared quebec’s economy neutral due trump to those of the Canadian Mortgage. Housing Company (SCHL), which says it perceives a runaway for residential construction in Quebec.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing CompanyLockstart -ups in the region increased by 219 % in May (new window) compared to the same period last year.